Is America Facing an Economic Collapse or New Beginning?

America seems to have entered (or better yet, stumbled) into a crisis mostly of its own making.  We've endured a pandemic which, though the government denies it, appears to have originated in China, from a Chinese lab known to be used by the Chinese military for some dubious (to say the least) research. Some will add (perhaps correctly) that the ultimate origins of the virus, may have, in fact, been created or modified here in the U.S.

On the surface, COVID-19 appears to be a flu virus which has been genetically modified to produce a slightly more potent form of the flu virus which appears to affect mainly those with weakened immune systems. In addition, the virus has the nasty little habit of continually morphing, which makes it difficult for immunologists to get ahead of the virus and produce a long term effective vaccine.

The Government's response to the virus was haphazard to put it mildly. Nevertheless, vaccines were developed and approved in record time (almost "as if" they were waiting...hum). But they're seen as suspect according to a growing number of doctors and pseudo-experts.

The result is another manufactured divide between those willing to be vaccinated and those who question the validity of the vaccines for various reasons, and have decided not to get vaccinated, at least for the time being. Frankly, if one follows common sense thinking, who's to really blame them? There are ample enough inconsistencies in the research, development, and approval process by the CDC and various labs to warrant holding off, and that's where things have gone off the rails.

The result has been governments attempting to "mandate" or, defacto "order" people to "get the jab" as the expression goes. Employers have jumped on the bandwagon (especially those with government contracts) and demanded that their current and potential employees must either get vaccinated or show proof of vaccination.

This has resulted in many believing that a "vaccine passport" is in the works, similar to the Nazi Era "KennKarte" or identification cards, which, by the way, the Soviets also required along with practically every modern era totalitarian regime. Perhaps implants are in the future?

Some go as far to claim that the vaccine itself is a ruse, and that it actually contains a magnetic tracking devise needed to bring about a diabolical one world government. Others insist that it's in reality a slow poison design to "thin out the herd", which allegedly has long been a secret goal of various elitist secret societies like the Bilderbergers or Trilateral Commission. 

Nevertheless, the whole issue of "to vaxx or not to vaxx" has further divided an already deeply divided America, and it has affected others elsewhere in the world.  Worse yet, it's causing a ripple effect that I don't think many economists (and certainly not the majority of politicians) expected.

Key to this has been the vast numbers of "help wanted" signs everywhere. It seems that nearly everyone with a business is in desperate need of employees. Some are offering unheard of starting salaries, sign on bonuses, and all sorts of other perks and gimmicks to win over new employees.

For smaller businesses, they are unable to match what the megastores can offer. The result is hardly unexpected. Closure. Bankruptcy. Meanwhile, for the rest of us, prices will go up to offset the higher costs to attract employees. Of course, their employment is contingent on them providing proof of vaccination. No proof. No job.  

Meanwhile, companies are operating understaffed, forcing those who show up to work, to work more and longer; often doing the job that previously two or even three people did. Some businesses are doing the opposite by cutting back on hours or days they're open.

How many of us have gone into a store to either find empty shelves or having to sidestep pallets of boxes parked in the middle of floor? The reason is that those few willing (and able) to work, are able to chose their hours. That means stockers, who used to work mostly at night, are now working days, meaning that something we're looking for may not be there now, but could be an 30 minutes later!

In addition, we're seeing a number of production facilities slow down, reduce hours, or periodically shut down. This reduces availability, which in turn drives up prices.  Oil and gas companies are doing this, which is forcing up gas prices, as well as heating oil with winter fast approaching.

Simultaneously, there are hundreds of ships waiting offshore to be unloaded. Each full of twenty foot containers filled with merchandise, including food in some instances; food with very specific expiration dates. The result is, again, less product available which leads to higher prices.

As for the other merchandise, including orders from overseas, consumers are unable to get what they want and producers are unable to sell product and get paid. The result is that orders get cancelled and consumers find substitutes to spend their money on, and so the vicious cycles goes round and round. But that's not the entirety of the problem.

As with other employers, they are requiring proof of vaccination. The longshoreman and dockworkers are severely shorthanded, not because solely of the virus, but because there was already a shortage. The equipment is both outdated and in short supply. Manufactures are demanding that outbound product get priority while inbound products are put in hold; often regulated to skeleton crews or no crews at all some days.

Once product is finally off loaded, sorted, palletized, and made ready for shipment, we face a shortage of truckers, pilots, and railroad personnel for the same reasons cited above. In addition, these jobs, while usually paying well and offering great benefits, are hard on the individual and their family.

 The owner/operator truck driver has been all but put out of business by government regulation and big companies, not mention incidentals like the cost of gas and insurance.  Pilots are making more flights, flying older model planes, and having less time for detailed maintenance (which brings up another point---few maintenance personnel for all the reasons previously mentioned).

The third leg of our tripod transportation system is the availability of freight trains and experienced engineers to drive them. Our rail system is, frankly, horribly outdated. The rail system itself is in need of updating. Even the rail yards are overcrowded.

There are shortages of cars and engines, not to mention maintenance staff, who, like everybody else, has to show proof of vaccination, and like everyone else, some will and will report to work while others won't and will stay home.  

Despite their power, locomotives are, on average, about 30 years old, while the freight cars are about twenty years old.  As an aside, the average age of a locomotive engineer is 46. The upside is that train routing systems are highly automated, but the human element is still needed for them to function properly.  

As for truckers, they face increase demands for quick turnarounds; dropping off one load and picking up another. Long haul or "over the road" truckers are often gone for a week at a time. They have to deal with not only imposed time management issues, but traffic delays and road work (most use a traffic routing system which helps them avoid delays which they own or is provided for by their employer))

Roads in the United States are decades past due for improvement, especially bridges. Unfortunately, most local governments can't afford the necessary repairs which can run in the millions, and opt for cheap "fixes" due to their limited budgets. While they work in the short term. they ultimately just put off what will be a more serious and expensive problem down the not-too-distant road.

The same goes for states. They're typically in a financial bind of some sort and put off resolving the problem in exchange for quick fix "solutions", despite federal money for state as well as local road use. Naturally, none of this free. It's all paid for with our taxes, and the worse it gets, the more of our money they'll take.

The COVID virus, of course, didn't cause any of this, but it did exacerbate existing problems across the board, not to mention creating more than few new ones. You could call COVID the straw that finally broke the camel's back. So, what does this mean for the rest of us? What can we expect in the future?

Employers are essentially mandating their employees be vaccinated. Can they do this legally? Well, it would appear so. Employers are using existing federal guidelines calling for safe workplaces as the basis for their demands as cover. There are exceptions of course, such as for sincere religious reasons or if there is a potential health concern triggered by the vaccine (such as complications with a pregnancy, or adverse effect to an existing condition or current medication).

The result to all this is an artificial shortage of available employees. There are more than enough skilled and willing individuals to work, they just have serious doubts about the vaccination's safety, which is a legitimate concern.

Some employers have worked around this by requiring unvaccinated employees to be tested weekly. Other employers have shifted unvaccinated workers away from customer contact as much as possible, while requiring as mask when in contact with customers.

In the interim, it's a employee's market. Employers are desperate. However, unless some accommodation acceptable to both sides of the vaccination question is reached, we'll continue to see "help wanted" signs and shortages in stores and warehouses. Meanwhile, don't be surprised to see prices across the board go up to offset higher wages and products shortages.

However, an accommodation will be reached. It has too. Unemployment last only so long; few Americans have ample savings stashed away, and there's only so much debt you can carry.  The tide will turn, and it will become a employer job market again, and when it does, watch out!

Because of the shortages, many smaller businesses will fold. That will reduce a lot of variety in the marketplace. People will be forced to buy from the Amazons of the world for that unique or hard to find item. A large number of companies will become automated, reducing the need for human "drones".

Markets will also expand to more potential customers overseas.  That, along with the continuing influx of illegal and legal immigrants, will drive wages---but not prices---down, and along with it, benefits. When possible, employers will export jobs overseas to countries like China, India, and Indonesia. 

The end result could potentially be inflation, which results where prices exceed wages. If that can't be brought under control quickly, it could be devastating to any country's economy, be it the U.S., France, Mexico, or China, just as it is currently in Venezuela or was in 1920's Germany.

There could be riots over food shortages and prices, lack of jobs, gas and heating oil, quality of life, and so forth as one group turns on the other (something the Oligarchy has been fostering for years). Just the perfect scenario for martial law. The result could be a neo-fascist police state like we've been warned about for years (including from yours truly).

We can, however, stop this from happening. Force employers and the government alike to allow us to make our own health choices. If that means multiple weekly testing and/or wearing masks and gloves, so be it. That will get ships unloaded, trucks back on the road and products on the shelves again. None of this is permanent. It too will pass.

That will get people back to work. Some may choose jobs different than they had pre-COVID. That's good to. But for some, that old job will likely be automated, so brush up on your skills, or better yet, your education by seeking out a trade school or maybe picking up a language like Spanish, Hindi, or Mandarin Chinese.  

Most Americans are in debt; some very serious debt. Those who've been playing economic chicken will be hurt the most. Don't look for relief from the government in the form of debt forgiveness or low/no interest debt consolidation loans. Don't expect prices to go back down. They won't. Same with taxes. The only thing we can do here is get laws passed requiring voter approval for all tax, fee, rate, or salary increases for public employees.

With respect to infrastructure, expect to see more joint government/corporate financing of specific roads, ports, rail lines, etc which involves corporate use in exchange for increased tax breaks and public access. There could even be more corporate influence in public education curriculum as corporations take over the role of creating a "classroom to job" graduate.

I don't know if the COVID virus was an act of Nature or Man. But from what I've seen, my money is on the latter. It hit just as things were winding down in Afghanistan and we were involved in yet another divisive election. It has provided another (manufactured) division. It has rid the economy of much of the remaining small businesses. It has created an artificial worker shortage, along with possible inflation thanks to rising prices and stagnant or falling wages. That will eventually mean fewer jobs. We can stop it. But we have to act now, and we have to act together.

Want to know more? Check out our reference sites below.

 

The impact of COVID-19 on employment and jobs

The future of work after COVID-19

 

What You Should Know About COVID-19 and the ADA, theRehabilitation Act, and Other EEO Laws

 

Can Employers Force Pregnant Women to Get Vaccinated?

 

 

Getting Pumped at the Pump

On the way to work last Wednesday, I stopped to buy gas, at what I thought was an outrageous price of $3.98 a gallon. On the way home, the price here in Louisville had jumped to $4.15 a gallon! What on earth happened between 7:30 AM and 6:00 PM? Had some refinery been blown up? Had there been some cataclysmic rupture of a pipeline, spilling millions of gallons of crude on the frozen tundra of Alaska (again)? Had some oil tanker run aground (again)? Nope, it was none of those. As it turned out, according to the local news, the price of gas was simply “adjusting” to the new barrel price of $131. Whew, and I thought it was something serious like some greedy little oil sheik or profit grubbing oil execs. It was just some harmless “self adjusting”. Kind of like the type we’re all making in our buying habits, like paying for more for cans of peas, corn, bread, steaks, fish, and even butter (I just read where people are starting to give up their pets because they no longer can afford the pet food). It seems that the pump prices where just catching up to near current pricing of oil. The price I had paid that morning was the based on the price of oil from a couple of months ago. The price on the way home was based on the cost of the same barrel a few weeks ago. According to the oil industry analyst being interviewed, the price at the pump was still “adjusting” and should settle down at around $5.00 to $5.50 a gallon. Luckily that will just be in time for summer vacations. We sure don’t want a fluctuating pump price while visiting all those national parks, resorts, and beaches do we? Then again, who can afford to go on vacation?

I guess what got my goat (which I may have to start riding to work) was what had happened the day before. The Republicans already have some serious issues to contend with, like a “to-be-named-later” official recession, devastating natural disasters affecting homes, businesses, a housing market collapse brought on by speculative lending practices, and crop failures, as well as two wars, and ongoing terrorists threats (not to mention illegal immigration, China, North Korea, exporting of jobs, a health care crisis, a collapsing airline industry, and deteriorating national infrastructure). And to make matters worse, George W Bush is still president. So, what is the dumbest thing the National GOP could do? The Senate GOP blocked a bill that would have imposed a tax on the billions of windfall profits the oil companies are raking in.

According to GOP House leaders, the windfall tax would do little to reduce the price of gas at the pump. Well, maybe it wouldn’t, but it sure would make the public feel better to know somebody was at least trying to do something to stop economic rape of the public. The Democrat sponsored bill would have added a 25% tax on “unreasonable” profits made the oil companies, who, for the first three months of this year, racked up $36 billion dollars in pure profit. Republican leaders commented that they thought the tax would “do more harm than good”. Yeah, but to whom? The people they were elected to represent or the folks who pay for their junkets? The Democrats needed 60 votes to get the bill through. The received only 51, including from seven Republicans who voted for the people, while one Democrat and the remaining Republicans voted “no” in support of the oil companies. The bill would have also rescinded tax breaks to the oil companies, which is expected to save them $17 billion dollars over the next 10 years.

In a second act of stupidity the same day, the Senate Republicans voted to block extending tax credits, which were scheduled to expire, for wind, solar, and other alternative energy development, including energy conservation and efficiency research. I don’t care what your party affiliation is, but when the people you represent are suffering emotionally and financially and you are in a position to do something about it (even if only symbolically), then you do it. Failure to do so is arrogance at best, and borders on political suicide. The failure to help voters at the pump now will---not may--- result in the voter helping the GOP out of office in November. Frankly, I hate to see it, but perhaps a little comeuppance will do the GOP leadership some good.


The Future of the Right

I came across a recent article in which presidential historians are predicting that based on past trends, the John McCain led Republicans are headed for a serious thumping this November. Given what I cited in the previous article, I started thinking about the GOP and its future. Certainly, as a national player, the Republican Party won’t fade away, though many political pundits think it could, at least for awhile, devolve into little more than a regional player (mainly in the Bible-belt South). It is also certainly true that many of the traditional Republicans in the Northeast and Central Western States have already walked away.

Historically, the Republicans were a conglomeration of several third parties. Today, there appears to be three principal groups. The prevalent group most people are familiar with are the Christian Right Republicans (sometimes called Social Conservative Republicans). They are less interested in fiscal issues or government size than they are with social ones such as abortion, same sex marriage, prayer in school, posting of the Ten Commandments, etc. They are best illustrated by George W Bush, Jerry Farwell, and Pat Robertson.

The next group is the Goldwater or Libertarian Republicans. As the name implies, they are interested in getting government out of your life as much as possible. They believe in the old adage that “the government which governs the least governs the best”. Keen on small government, low (or no) taxes, they support private initiatives over public programs. Barry Goldwater, the “father” of the modern Conservative Movement, Ronald Reagan, and Ron Paul are the three best examples.

The last group is the Progressive Republicans (sometimes called the Teddy Roosevelt or Moderate Republicans). It is this group which has historically been the most successful. They are quite at home before a corporate Board of Directors as they are in a Union Hall (in fact, they’ve often been some of Labor’s biggest supporters). Progressives believe government should be kept to a minimal if possible, but should always be used to keep and maintain a level playing field. Unlike the Christian Right or Libertarian Republicans, they believe social issues are essentially private issues. Who you love and choose to marry is a personal issue (whether or not they personally agree with it). Abortion, while it should never be used as a form of birth control, is primarily a private issue and should at least remain an option when the life or health of either the mother or child is at risk. They believe in avoiding foreign wars unless national security is at risk. They supported breaking big business rackets or trusts. They support national programs (like the creation of national parks, the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, employee protection such as OSHA and various anti-discrimination legislation, etc.) when private action alone won’t work. However, they are firm believers that there is no room for hyphenated Americans. Once a citizen, you are an American first and last. Your loyalty is to this country alone, and that means not only learning the language, but also civic participation. The group is best represented by Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, and George H. Bush.

The Moderate and Libertarian Republicans having either been leaving the GOP since the Newt Gringrich led “Republican Revolution” and the rise of the Social Conservatives, or forced to sit on the sidelines. The Social Conservatives under the Reagan and Gringrich leadership could do no wrong, and it seemed the Democrats could do no right. Nevertheless, their results were at first astonishing. Following on the heels of the “Revolution” however was Bill Clinton, and despite his inability to keep his pants zipped, lead the country to the best economic growth it had ever seen. Internally, the Socially Conservative Republicans (perhaps because of their stinging loss of the presidency) began “Rino” hunting. The term “Rino” is intended to be a derogatory word meaning “Republican in Name Only” and implied that, in a phrase, “if you ain’t with us, you’re against us” (the Democrats have a similar term for ultra conservatives in their party, whom they call a “Dino”). Their idea was to work against a fellow Republican, even if it meant supporting a Democrat if that Republican wasn’t conservative enough. Such was the widening fissures in the Right’s control of the GOP and weakening of the party.

Lastly was the election of George W. Bush. Starting off as the butt of every late night comedy routine, Bush emerged as the dynamic leader of a stricken nation following the cowardly 9/11 attacks. And for awhile, he was. However, Bush (and many would say Rove, Cheney, and Rumsfeld) led the nation into a military and economic quagmire that we may be decades in extricating ourselves from. Now we are faced with a so-called Republican moderate in Senator John McCain and a unproved Junior Senator from Illinois by the name of Barack Obama for President.

The Chinese philosopher and military strategist, Sun Tzu once said “know your enemy and know yourself and you will find victory”. To which I reply, know your enemy’s philosophy and know your own, and you will find victory. The Republicans want to take America back to a time of Ronald Reagan. The Democrats want to take America forward to a “time of Hope”. Americans have seen the past. We know the promises it held. But we know where those same promises have also led us. I think Americans will choose a future which holds out a promise of hope over a past which has led no where.

As for the Republicans, perhaps it’s time to return to the future and again embrace the values which made it so successful like personal responsibility, an entrepreneurial spirit, and a sense of social moderation.


I alluded earlier to the failure of government to maintain our infrastructure. Regular contributor “Moderate Man” has a few words on the subject himself. See what you think.

America’s Infrastructure Needs an Overhaul

America’s infrastructure needs an overhaul from top to bottom. It desperately needs leadership from the executive office. Someone with vision and determination. It also needs funding and tax reform to make it work for centuries to come. Our country started over two centuries ago with no infrastructure and a smaller population. My, look at what we have grown into! Not only has our land mass expanded, but so has our technology and population. We have 8,420,000 total road miles (2,308,602 are urban and 6,111,987 are rural), of which 87,944 miles are interstate and of those, only 46.5% are listed in good condition, according to the Department of Transportation. The county has 169,346 miles of oil pipelines and 1,437,500 miles of natural gas pipelines. America has 157,000 miles of high voltage transmission power lines with 10,000 power plants. Usually there are disruptions in service in the summer months. There are networks consisting of 120,000 miles of major railroads.

Meanwhile, the country’s publicly funded rail, Amtrak, has only 505 stations in 46 states on 22,000 route miles. It only owns 3% or 730 route miles. America has over 25,000 miles of commercially navigable waterways and over 19,900 airports. This vast system also includes over 500 major urban public transit operators and more than 300 ports on the coasts, Great Lakes, and inland waterways with 26,000 total miles of navigable channels. According to the Department of Transportation, 72,520 of America’s bridges (599,766 total bridges in America) are listed as structurally deficient and 79,804 are listed as functionally obsolete. That will make you feel safe the next time you cross a bridge. America has 79,000 total dams blocking 600,000 miles of rivers (about 17% of all rivers in America). Dams don’t last forever. Experts indicate there are one TRILLION dollars needed in water and sewer projects around the country. Think about that the next time you brush your teeth. Transportation contributes 11 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, amounting to approximately one trillion. Transportation accounts for 19 percent of spending by the average household in America-as much as food and health care combined-and second only to spending on housing. Although it might be more due to the recent fuel increase costs.

The U.S. transportation system carries over 4.7 trillion passenger miles of travel and 3.7 trillion ton miles of domestic freight generated by about 270 million people, 6.7 million business establishments, and 88,000 units of government. Rail and maritime transportation each account for over 11 percent of the tonnage carried. America’s transportation system each year carried 2.7 trillion miles of travel by cars and trucks, more than 9 billion trips on public transit, more than 640 million passengers boarding’s on airplanes, 21 million trips on Amtrak, and nearly 700 million rail freight train miles. Our country in short, uses the infrastructure very heavily. It needs maintenance and replacement in sections. We don’t need to be rebuilding other country’s infrastructure. Fix our own first! The solution is simple, but not easy. Infrastructure should be revenue dedicated and untouchable for other federal agency expenditures. The same for national defense and social security. There should be a tax at the point of profit for these 3 items and a fourth for the rest of the federal government expenses. This doesn’t include any state or city taxes that could be added. Take care of America first!


Moderate Man


Poll Results

With gas prices rising, I asked if oil companies should be nationalized. 40% of you said “no” and the free market should dictate prices. 35% of you thought oil companies needed stronger governmental regulation, while 15% thought oil companies should be nationalized.