It centered on two prime issues. Access and control of 5.7 million tons of oil reserves and 805.3 billion cubic meters of gas with another 1000 billion cubic meters of natural gas found in the area around the Black Sea along with hard coal resources in the Donbas worth in the neighborhood of $57 billion dollars and millions of tons worth of other minerals--- and securing a NATO presence near the Russian border and especially close to Russia's second largest naval installation at Sebastopol in the Crimea.
This would encompass Russia's entire western frontier and making it impossible for Russia's Black Sea fleet to operate freely in the Black Sea or pass through the Straits and into the Mediterranean Sea. To put it another away, it would be like pointing a loaded gun at Putin's head and demanding that he stop being so violent.
The media in the West wants everyone to believe that this was an act of aggression. It wasn't. It was an act of self defense. Once NATO was in Ukraine, there would be no way of removing them. Russia's response was exactly what any other nation's would be---headed it off before it w as too late. How would the U.S. respond to a militarized border with Canada or Mexico? What would be Washington's response to missiles aimed pointblank at Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego (which is home to our second largest Naval base) or at our NORAD installations in Alaska and Colorado?
So, here we are, a year into the war and no clear winner. President Biden just paid a surprise visit to Kyiv (after alerting the Russians beforehand so that Air Force One didn't get shot down) where he promised Ukrainian President Zelenskyy "America's undying support for the Ukrainian People" (meaning the Zelenskyy government) and billions of dollars worth of military aid despite the fact that most Americans want no part of a war directly or indirectly with Russia or spending billions overseas when we desperately need it here (East Palestine Ohio immediately comes to mind).
So who the hell wants to get involved in another war, especially with Russia? Well, the "merchants of death"---the American military industrial complex and NATO would . They are making tens of billions supplying military hardware to Ukrainian forces via the U.S. military. The energy industry would. They stand to make many billions if they can get their hands on all the coal, oil and gas reserves and mineral deposits.
Since the collapse of the USSR in 1989 and reunification of Germany, NATO has expanded from the German border eastward to encompass Russia's western frontier. Today NATO includes all the former Warsaw Pact nations of Eastern Europe with one exception...Ukraine.
So, what happens now? Russia has long said that a NATO presence in the Ukraine would be viewed as a unqualified threat to its national security for reasons previously stated. As a result of this threat war happened. NATO and the United States has seen to it that Ukraine remains fully armed, thus prolonging the war for who knows how many more years (as an aside, you'll note that while Biden promised billions in military aid and financial support, he said nothing about finding a way to bring the conflict to a peaceful end. That in itself should tell you something).
China, which has long had a long "frenemy" relationship with Russia, has stepped up to offer Russia military and technological support. This poses an interesting quandary for the West and in particular for the United States, which is heavily dependent on Chinese imports, especially in the area of technology and electronics. As of December 2022, we imported 37.3 billion dollars worth of goods from China.
It's worth mentioning as well that China has also indicated that it would like to replace the dollar as the world's "go to" currency with the Yuan. At the very least, making the Yuan a alternative world currency on par with the dollar. Again, this could have a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Secondly, China has been asserting itself throughout the Eastern Asia region, particularly where Taiwan is concerned.
It's also been aggressively trying to expand its territorial waters in the South China Sea and claiming fishing rights in waters now claimed by Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and even India (where there's a "warm" territorial conflict ongoing between the two nations).
I think it's pretty much a given that should American "boots" hit the ground in Ukraine, as been hinted at by Biden officials, things could get very ugly very fast. There's no way the U.S. military, which was badly depleted in its lost cause in Afghanistan and Iraq, could defend against an aggressive China on one hand and a slugfest in Ukraine (which would undoubtedly spill over into Europe).
There's also another possibility, which doesn't bode well for anybody. Putin just announced that Russia was withdrawing from the last treaty it had with the United States concerning nuclear weapons. This was followed up with his announcement that Russia was rolling out its RS-28 "Sarmat" nuclear missiles (aka "Satan II").
The Sarmat is a intercontinental missile capable of caring ten "heavy" or 15 "light" thermonuclear separate warheads (also known as "MIRV" or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) . They can be launched from a HGC, using a Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle which is at present considered undefendable due to its exceptionally high velocity (estimated to be around 25,500 kph or 15,845 miles per hour).With a shortened first boost stage following launch, it makes them difficult at best to track by satellites using heat sensors. They have a range of roughly 21,748 miles. It's 4,873 air miles between Moscow and Washington DC in case you were wondering.
Each launch site can be equipped with "Mozyr" anti-strike system. This comes with a early detection satellite directed radar system which launches a massive battery of steel "arrows" or metal balls at incoming fighters, bombs, rockets, ICBMs, etc designed to protect the launch vehicle or site. They are allegedly capable at hitting incoming targets at altitudes of about 4 miles. If this sounds wicked, it's because it is. An interesting aside is that the Sarmat made its first test flight on April 20, 2022 which also happened to be the birthday of Russia's great nemesis, Adolf Hitler.
I think this was a not so subtle warning from Putin to Biden to back off. If he (Biden) can't bring a peaceful solution to the table, back off (ordering the Nord Stream pipelines to be blown up---allegedly--- wasn't helpful Joe). If nothing else, Putin could make regions of Ukraine uninhabitable, making not only the need for a NATO presence in Ukraine irreverent but irradiating the oil and gas fields as with the coal and other minerals.
So, here's where we are with the situation. The corporate interests behind the Biden Administration have reached their Rubicon. If they cross it they risk a global calamity unlike anything the world has ever seen. Of course, they are quite willing to risk the lives of as many people as necessary to gain access to the coal, oil and gas reserves irrespective of any environmental damage, but this is something else altogether. They also risk a economic meltdown as we described should China decide to back its Russian ally all the way.
If Biden backs down from his recent rehearsed statements, he loses face abroad as support for war at home still continues to decline. Currently 48% of voters support sending military aid, which is down from an original 60%. Meanwhile, just 35% support putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. The DNC and its corporate backers will have to find a way out.
On the GOP side, Trump remains a threat (thanks largely to the "monster" the media created him into), if only for the commotion he could cause within Republican ranks. His prospects of actually being nominated at the Republican Convention are virtually nil, let alone winning the Presidency again.
Public tolerance of the ruling oligarchy on both sides has reached a breaking point with this political kabuki theater and neither side wants to risk losing control of the corporatocracy it substituted in place of the Republic. What is needed is a another distraction at home and amenable president acceptable to both corporate factions in order to let the situation in Ukraine to run its course, which is what I expect.
Meanwhile, if the U.S. and European merchants of death can be persuaded to cut back its arming of Ukraine, look for Moscow and Kyiv to makes moves to resolve the war amicably. After all, both countries are exhausted militarily (although, despite U.S. led sanctions, the Russian economy is doing quite well thank you). Ukraine is in serious economic trouble as well thanks to the war. What is critically needed is for the EU/NATO and Washington to stop egging the war on and focusing on finding a peaceful solution.
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