Trump Getting Real with Zelensky: Find Peace with Russia or No More Money

 

Much has already been made of the heated meeting between President Vladmir Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump and Vice President  JD Vance.  President Trump, in effect, told Zelensky to make peace with Putin or he was taking away the keys to Ukraine’s war machine…and put a damn tie on where he’s at it!

Zelensky seems to believe that with U.S. financial backing, he will be able to stalemate Putin virtually indefinitely, perhaps even in the long run, obtain NATO membership. That’s something Trump opposes. Putin has attempted several overtures at peace, which Zelensky has essentially blown off like, and why not? He’s got the biggest bully in the world in his court, the United States.     

Trump used the meeting to make a very public statement to Zelensky, the people of Ukraine, to Putin, and to the world---no more money, no more armament and no mineral deal until Zelensky puts on his big boy pants and can set down for a serious discussion about peace with Russia, otherwise we walk, and he can deal with one very angry Russian bear.

 NATO, which also heavily depends on the US, can do as it pleases, but the US needs to set this one out thank you very much should they continue to poke the bear (and kudos to Italy’s Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni, for rejecting UK-French plan to send European troops to Ukraine). It’s one thing to come to the aid of ally being attacked, but when they bring it on themselves, maybe a lesson in “told-you-so” diplomacy is in order.

Putin, on the other hand, has committed much of his military to what amounts to a slow bleed of Ukraine’s economy and military. His has activated antiquated weapon systems (such as outdated tanks) and even employed North Korean troops in what amounts to a ”fight for food” deal for the bankrupt Communist state.

The only sensible reason for Putin to do this is one of taking a measured stance against Ukraine. Putin didn’t start the war. Zelensky and NATO did (with a little help from a former president’s son looking to score a big financial payday). Putin has been consistent his insistence that NATO missiles and armament will not be deployed along his border with Ukraine. Zelensky and NATO thought that by playing the U.S. card, Putin could be intimidated. That wasn’t going to happen

Putin is not a spineless leader of the sort that Europe has produced in abundance lately (for an example, look at their immigration disaster and its effect on crime and their culture). Putin is very intelligent. He was a senior KGB officer. He doesn’t bluff. Unlike European leaders, he doesn’t care if you call him names.  However, since the fall of the USSR and Soviet Russia, their leaders, starting with Mikhail Gorbachev, have tried  once again to build bridges to the West.

Ever since the days of Peter the Great, Russia has wanted to join with the West and act as a bridge between East and West. At one point,  they even asked to join NATO and was rejected out of hand and perhaps justifiably so. With the end of the Cold War, there had been a lot of talk about dismantling NATO.

Therefore, NATO’s justification for its continued existence depended on having a bad guy and that bad guy is Putin. It’s also why many neo-cons and policy gamers are anxious to start a new Cold War. War is profitable---cold or hot. It bears mentioning that the establishment of the Warsaw Pact came about only after the creation of NATO and then with the intention of being a defensive deterrent, presumably against the same military and industrial complex President Eisenhower spoke of in his 1961 “Farewell Address to the Nation”.   

In 1990, as the Warsaw Pact nations began to fall, Secretary of State James Baker informed Soviet Foreign Minister Edward Shevardnadze (in the presence of Gorbachev) that once the unification of Germany was complete, NATO had no intention of advancing “one inch to the east”, and yet within ten years, that’s exactly what happened. Gorbachev saw it as a time to restart and one of openness or as he called it, “Perestroika”. As Gorbachev said at the time, “we are duty bound to learn to live in peace”.

One by one, the former Warsaw Pact countries of Poland (1999),  Hungary (1999), Romania (2004), Czechia (1999), Bulgaria (2004), the Baltic states (2004), and so forth were admitted into NATO, and each time Russian leaders protested through all the proper international channels and were ignored.

At first, the Russians were assured there would be no more, until there was. But each time a country joined, NATO missiles were deployed all along their border. As a result, Russia was slowly helmed in. It would be like Russian missiles being deployed along our southern border, first in the numerous Caribbean islands one by one, until finally, in Mexico along the Rio Grande.

What if the Russians started deploying missiles along the Canadian border just like what happened after Norway and Denmark joined NATO in 1949, Finland in 2023, or Sweden in 2024.   How would you expect Washington would react?

Actually, you don’t even have to imagine. That was what the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was all about. It was Russia’s response to U.S. nuclear tipped intermediate range “Jupiter” missiles previously being deployed in Turkey (which had joined NATO in 1952).

Amusingly, then Soviet Premier Khrushchev would walk visitors to his vacation home on the Black Sea to the balcony and hand them  a pair of binoculars, asking “what do you see?”. They typically replied, “I see the sky” or “I see the water”. He would then look through the binoculars and bellow “I see American missiles in Turkey aimed at my dacha!”.

It seems that everyone knew that a NATO presence in Ukraine would be the straw to break the bear’s back, yet they expected Putin to do nothing but grouse and saber rattle like the West does, but that didn’t happen. Putin secured the Crimea, which has been a Russian possession since 1783 when it was annexed by Catherine the Great. It has a majority Russian population. Strategically, the Crimea is the home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, at Sebastopol, which is their version of our naval base in San Diego.

Russian is taught in its schools and it’s the common language of its people. It was followed by a plebiscite, asking the citizens whether they wanted to remain apart of Russia or the Ukraine. The overwhelming majority said “Russia”.

But this had nothing to do with the history of the region, the will of the people, national sovereignty, or even the long standing presence of the Russian military in and around Sebastopol. This was about oil and gas, which had been discovered in abundance in the Black Sea, and western oil companies wanted it.

In addition to large reserves of oil and gas, the Ukraine has vast deposits of key minerals, much of it in the disputed Donbas Region which is occupied by Russian troops. The deal President Trump was willing to sign with President Zelensky would have allowed a U.S. presence in the Donbas (technically still belonging to Ukraine) to mine for deposits valuable minerals, with each country splitting the processes 50/50. It would enable the Ukraine to begin paying the U.S. back some of the billions it owes us in aid, retain Ukrainian soil, and help Ukraine to rebuild its infrastructure.

In addition, it would be an incentive for Putin’s troops to either withdraw from the areas being explored and mined, or perhaps even pull back altogether. After all, Putin doesn’t want to kill or injure U.S. civilians at any cost. It would serve as a de facto “economic buffer zone” without the need for a single pair of U.S. military boots on the ground and each side wins.

However, Zelensky needed to agree to a peace talks with Russia, and that’s where he has repeatedly dropped the ball. When it comes to power politics, Zelensky is out of his league. He’s a standup comedian turned politician unlike others who are politicians turned fools.  Accordingly, he got a dressing down in his meeting with Trump and Vice President Vance. He was put on notice that the U.S. would not finance his war with Russia indefinitely or for free.

Even during the early stages of WWII, before the U.S. was directly involved, Prime Minister Churchill gave the U.S. 99 year leases to bases on their island possessions in the Caribbean as a “down payment” and “thank you “ to all the war material and economic support we provided to England under the Lend Lease Act of 1941 (the act also extended to the Republic of China, France, the Soviet Union and other allied nations).   As of 2024, we have given Ukraine $174.2 billion dollars in aid (military and otherwise) while the European Union has given about $18 billion.

President Trump announced during his speech to Congress on March 4^th, that he had received a letter from Zelensky finally agreeing to sit down with Putin and hammer out some sort of peace deal. It may not be entirely to Zelensky’s liking, or that of Putin’s, but it will mean no more killing on either side and ending the destruction of Ukrainian cities and villages.

In addition, President Zelensky said in his letter to President Trump that he was still willing to sign the minerals agreement, which would be a good thing for the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine is a country with vast untapped economic potential, from the oil and gas reserves it does control, to its timber and mineral wealth, and it possesses the most fertile soil in Europe and quite possibly the world. (hence the moniker “breadbasket of Europe”).

This was also an education of sorts for Zelensky about what Otto von Bismarck called “Realpolitik”. Never disrespect your benefactor or take them for granted. By that, don’t show up in casual slacks and t-shirt and “knock-around” boots to meet the leader of a world power and expect to be given a virtual blank check for a never-ending war without a plan to pay them back.  America isn’t your ATM. Show some humility. Even Churchill arrived dressed to the nines with hat in hand and he offered at least island leases!  

 

Thank you for reading "Another Opinion", the Op/Ed blog page for the "militant middle".  Here at "A/O" we truly value our readers. At A/O we seek the facts as they exist, not partisan talking points.  We hope you find our articles informative and engaging. Comments are welcome, provided they are not vulgar, insulting or demeaning.  Another Opinion is offered without charge and is directed toward all independent and free-thinking individuals. We ask, however, that you "like" us on whatever platform you found us on in order to keep our articles available for free to others. Lastly, in order to keep costs down, we depend on passive marketing, and therefore, depend on our readers to please forward our posts along. Below you will find links to the sources we used in writing this article. Thank you. 

 

  Zelensky vows to ‘make things right’ with Trump and negotiate peace

How Gorbachev was misled over assurances against NATO expansion

4 Lessons to be learned from Zelensky’s White House Meeting

 

What they said: Trump, Zelenskyy and Vance’s heated argumentin the Oval Office

NATO Members

Russo-Ukrainian War  

Controversy regarding the legitimacy of eastward NATOexpansion

Lend Lease Act

EU Assistance to Ukraine (in U.S. Dollars)

No suit, no lunch, no respect: Zelenskyy-Trump feud startwith a fashion dig

2024: A Year in Review and a Look Ahead

There's no question that 2024 was one of the most pivotal years in recent history. It seems that practically everything was happening all at the same time, and the ripples it left with be felt for weeks, months, and even decades from now. In writing this week's article, it was difficult to decide what to include and what to leave out. Much of what we will witness over the upcoming 12 months and beyond have their roots in what we've jointly experienced. Here, then, are our top choices for the most significant events of 2024. 

Hamas and Israel

Perhaps one of the most noteworthy event of 2024 has been the war between Israel and Hamas. Since its founding in 1948, Israel has been involved in 19 wars and conflicts. Beginning with its War of Independence, Israel has faced the combined military might of the Arab world (with Russian and Chinese aid) or financially.   In every encounter (with the exception of one, which was a preemptive strike), Israel has been attacked with little or no prior notice by members of the Arab League. Each time it has prevailed thanks to the support of  the West, and most notably the United States.

On October 7th, members of the Iranian backed terrorist group, Hamas, secretly attacked a group of mostly civilian men, women, and children who had turned out for a concert and family oriented events. The attack was a brutal as it was sudden with over 1700 Israelis viciously murdered. Some were shot in cold blood, while others were raped before being burned alive. Others were taken captive. Beaten and repeatedly rape, they were to be used as bargaining chips to avoid repercussions against Hamas leadership. 

Since then, the Israelis have been relentless in the retaliation, which many have called "justifiable". However, while the Israelis have been winning in ruble of Gaza, they've been losing the public relations war. Hamas and their supporters have been able to portray Israel as the aggressor and guilty of genocide against Palestinian people while Hamas characteristically uses them as human shields and routinely attacking or hijacking relief trucks carrying medicine, food, and fresh water, which they often sell on the black market.  

Israel has seen a serious loss of support globally, and most notably in Europe and among NATO, which has historically backed the Israelis. The situation is so serious that Turkey has subtlety threatening to intervene to prevent the ongoing "genocide" of the Palestinians in Gaza. If that were to happen, how would it affect NATO? Besides having the second most powerful military in NATO behind the U.S., it also serves as a major bulwark, preventing hundreds of thousands of "migrants" from invading. Such a influx could collapse the European economy, which is already teetering on failure. 

Of late, Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hasn't been shy about threats to throw open its doors to these migrants should NATO or the EU impose any sanctions for its actions against Israel, the Kurds, or Syria. A threat by the way which has all the earmarks of political and economic blackmail. How would a greatly weakened U.S. military and NATO react should Turkey decide to intervene?

Syria, Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy: A Deadly Game of  Political Chess 

Iran, which is behind Hamas as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other terrorists groups, has made it crystal clear that it will "wipe Israel off the map" at the first opportunity even if it meant the complete destruction of Iran and all its people. It's no secret that Iran has aggressively been working on a nuclear bomb with the intent of hitting Israel even if it meant that Israel responded in kind. The major stumbling block for Iran has been a delivery platform and defeating Israel's famed "Iron Dome". The fall of Syria may have helped alleviate one portion of that problem.  

It's no secret that U.S. foreign policy has been the control of Middle Eastern oil and gas and transportation lanes as well as destabilizing Russian regional interests and removing Iran as a regional and possible global threat (we've never gotten over the humiliating 1979 "hostage crisis"). Our principal allies, like the Saudi and Kuwaiti royal families, are very nervous about the spread of Iran's radical religious extremism and its threats to destabilize or even topple their governments. 

As a result, Neocons in the U.S. State Department, in conjunction with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies, carefully laid out plans to reshape the Middle East in their image several years ago by first going after Afghanistan, then Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and lastly, the cherry on top---Iran (of course, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies are all in for any war or conflict. Besides, it's good for business).

Unfortunately, we didn't do so well in Iraq. Not because of any military defeat, but for not properly planning for a post-war government.  In Afghanistan, we lost because our arrogance and failure to learn from history. Everyone from King Cyrus the Great and Alexander to the British Empire and the USSR has failed to conquer Afghanistan. The result, after 20 years of fighting, was a stronger and better armed Taliban, an intact Al Qaeda, and a PR disaster for the Biden Administration.

 Meanwhile, the U.S. has been trying to overthrow the Assad government since 1971 when Hafez al-Assad became president.  His son, President Bashar al-Assad has never been a friend of terrorists and opposed Iran's radical form of Islam. Syria has been the nemesis of our NATO ally, Turkey and our trading partner, Saudi Arabia, yet it was also a buffer to Iranian expansion. 

Most importantly, is that Syria has been a close ally of Russia going back to the early 1950's. The fall of Bashar al-Assad was been on the State Department's and CIA's. "things to do" list for a very long time. During the Syrian civil war, U.S. intelligence agencies have been aiding the Al Qaeda affiliated militia, HTS, and other paramilitary groups in destabilizing Assad's government as part of the efforts. 

Now with Assad out of the way, a number of different militias are poised to battle for the control of Syria, or at least large swaths of it, including ISIS, which stands to benefit greatly from the instability. The leader of the U.S. backed HTS, a spin off of Al Qaeda, Abu Mohmmad al-Jolani, is now downplaying his anti-Western terrorist past in the hope that U.S. aid will buy him a place at the table when it comes time to divide Syria up (either by pen or bullet).  

Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, Iranian backed militias are now securely in Syria (most notably ISIS). This will allow Iran to extend its influence further, not to mention its missile launchers. ISIS has already launched several rocket and missiles at targets inside Israel. While the fall of Assad benefits U.S. foreign policy interest, at least for the moment, it puts Israel at greater risk. Israel has moved troops pass the Golan Heights buffer zone into Syria while Turkey has extended its reach deeper into northern Syrian territory, pushing the embattled Kurds further into the surrounding hills. Of course, all this sets the stage for even more "migrants" to invade Europe via Lebanon and bypassing Turkey. 2025 should prove very interesting as this situation continues to play out. 

Russia and Ukraine: A Game of Nuclear Chicken

Another event to keep a close eye on is the situation between Ukraine and Russia. The war, which began in February 2014, was thought by most political and military observers, to be over in a matter of months at best, given the easy in which Russia forces seized control of the Crimea. Yet, ten years later and both sides are still slugging it out. For Ukraine, its ability to holdout is due to being heavily supported by the U.S. and NATO members, who are also augmenting American aid with equipment and material of their own.  

Since February 2024, the U.S. has provide Kyiv with some $61.4 billion dollars in military aid according to the U.S. State Department. When other forms of aid are added in, including money to prop up Zelensky's government, American taxpayers have ponied up $106 billion dollars without so much as having say about it. Many analysts believe the goal is to bleed Russia dry militarily, thus removing or at least decreasing its super power status military, and maybe with some luck, even destabilize Putin's government. 

Some former Warsaw pact nations like Poland have become increasingly belligerent toward Russia and are threatening more direct assistance to Ukraine (Poland and Russia have a long and antagonistic history with each other). Putin has urged the Poles and others to seriously rethink their positions and tone down their rhetoric. There has also been hints by the Russians that any such intervention could result in a military response up to and including the use of nukes. 

In a bit of a surprise, North Korea has begun sending troops to support the Russians in exchange for desperately needed economic aid (it must be serious, Kim Jong-Un looks like he's losing some weight). It should be noted that the North Korean soldiers have proven to be mediocre at best. Nevertheless, even as cannon fodder, you can't fault their commitment. Many have chosen suicide to being captured.  

It's unlikely that Putin will allow this drain on his military or economy to continue much longer, That doesn't mean Putin may throw in the towel. Far from it. Putin may go all in, including the possible use of limited tactical nukes in key areas. If so, what then? Will the U.S. and NATO react in-kind or with a all out ground invasion of their own? Sanctions against Russia have proven to be of little use, especially given the rapid growth of BRICs. Since China, a Russia ally and our largest trading partner, is a member of BRICS, sanctions against the U.S. and the EU would have a more profound impact.

The Pentagon has already stated that, following the debacle in Afghanistan, the U.S. military was unable to conduct an effective war on multiple fronts, and with the situation in the Middle East spinning out of control, the rise of the Chinese military and its economic clout, that doesn't leave many options. If we get occupied in the Middle East, that could open door for a Chinese takeover of Taiwan or a North Korean invasion of the South for instance. 

Incoming President, Donald Trump claims to have a good working relationship with Putin, which could result in a ceasefire until a compromise is reached (NATO membership for Ukraine will likely remain off the table). Trump has made similar claims about Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and North Korean President, Kim Jong-Un, but is that just ego talking or can he pull it off? 2025 will likely reveal the reality behind the rhetoric.

 Artificial Intelligence and Humanity: Will the Creation Replace its Creator? 

Another huge development in 2024 is the "sudden" rise of artificial intelligence. Many tech heads hail "AI" as the greatest thing since the invention of the abacus. Others see it as the creation of the golem. What was once found only in the pages of Azimov, Herbert, Clarke, and Le Guin, we now have machines capable of analyzing and manipulating genetic conditions, altering manufacturing, serving as our surrogate on far away planets or deep in the ocean. They can manage not just our businesses, but our lives. In many ways I'm remined of movies like "Total Recall", "Blade Runner", and "I, Robot".

We have technology that can monitor and regulate, if needed, practically everything from diabetes, the heart, and kidney functions. We can now grow not just new skin, but organs! Individuals previously unable to walk, can do so now.  Technology can help us overcome a wide myriad of diseases and disorders. Some have proposed linking humans with technology, thus creating real life "Borg".  There are those already proposing that we turn over governments (especially the judicial system) to AI since it presumably could manage society better than we can.  

A few have experimented with linking the human brain with the internet in order to provide near unlimited knowledge. We can strap on exoskeletons which gives us 10x times the strength of the average human.  A growing number of AI developers are promoting the addition of chips into the human body to monitor things like blood pressure or sugar levels, but these chips could also contain our personal information; everything from our employment and medical history to our financial information and credit score. Yes, it could potentially cut down on identity theft, but is it really a good thing for us? 

Banks and other financial institutions are pushing hard to do away with cash. As it is, practically everything can be done electronically, from work to shopping to doctor appointments to banking and paying bills. In fact, businesses are increasingly urging automatically deducted payments. Think about it. You can run your home electronically. You can work from home, get paid automatically directly to your bank account and pay your bills automatically. You can buy your groceries and shop online, and even have them automatically delivered to your door. Plus, while personal information was once private, now everything is stored in the "cloud" and practically any financial institution---or government agency---can gain access to it.

Technology can provide you with all the "adventure" you'd want with highly realistic programs taking you everywhere and allowing you to interact! You'll be able to sense heat, cold, smell, or taste. Games, music, or books, they can already be downloaded to your computer, iPad, or Smartphone. Thanks to AI, and with the level of existing technology, the need for human contact is all but passe'.

Today, the United States has become a virtual surveillance state. Privacy is nowadays a rare commodity and talk about "escaping from the grid" is nearly impossible. You are already watched, monitored, and analyzed nearly everywhere you go. A feature like a chip would simply be one more way to track you. 

However, while chips could be used track us, they could be used to find  children prone to getting loss or adults with diseases like Alzheimer's of mental disabilities who tend to wonder off, especially those in need of special medication. It could be used to monitor former felons on parole. No more "ankle bracelets". Thanks to retina scans, facial and voice recognition software, and the ubiquitous security cameras,  you can be found no matter where you are.  Even drones can be used to find you. Heck, you car even has a tracking device! 

We're developing robots which are nearly indistinguishable from humans in appearance and mannerisms. We have video games which are so accurate they could pass for the real thing.  There are even operational protypes of sexbots! Our military is heavily dependent of AI or related technology to our fight wars in order to minimize human loss and injuries on the battlefield. Yet, without the experiencing the horrors of war, where are the incentives to prevent them?

In the United States and in much of the world, people have become essentially "chained" to their Smartphones. Businesses, like doctor offices or hospitals, expect to be able to text or leave a message for you on your phone. In some countries, such as China, its mandatory that they carry their Smartphones with them at all times. We are increasingly turning over our lives to technology to the point where the line between "master" and "servant" has become almost so blurred as to nearly indistinguishable between the two.

Scientists predict that human level Artificial Intelligence will reach "singularity" or self awareness sometime around 2040. It will exceed human level intelligence within ten years after that and continue to grow exponentially.  Within 20 years following singularity we will have as much in common with AI as we do now with a worm. The question is then what? Will AI seek to serve us or enslave us (for our  safety of course), but  later, seeing us as hopelessly inferior and unwilling or able to change, will it simply replace us? It wouldn't be hard. Will the creator be replaced by its creation? The growth of  AI will be an important issue to watch closely in 2025.

The MAGA Revolution: The Election of Donald Trump

I thought about entitling this section "The Messiahship of 'The Donald' ", but I thought that might be taking it a bit too far. Nevertheless, there's no question that some diehard "Trumpeters" out there  who wouldn't object.  For over ten years, Donald Trump had endured nearly every from of attack the Status Quo could throw at him. They've attacked his character, his businesses, members of his family, and even his friends. They've publicly maligned him at every turn. 

They've tried to break him financially with countless bogus lawsuits, and all without success. Finally, they've managed to create a public atmosphere so poisonous that there have been attempts on life. Never, in the history of our country, has there been a person as loathed by the ruling class as Donald Trump. But who can really blame them? After all, Trump has not only promised publicly to rid the country of the controlling oligarchs, he's promised to restore the Republic and end the neo-fascist corporatocracy. In fact, in his previous term, he tried to back up his words with action. 

However, Trump found out that "draining the swamp" was a lot harder than it first appeared. Our Republic had previously undergone a quiet coup, having been taken over by Wall Street in a approach known as "gradualism". It was slow, happening piecemeal, but it was no less insidious as any other putsch.  It was also through in every detail. It included both political parties, every government agencies and departments, NGOs, and especially the media. 

Nothing was left to chance. What could not be controlled, was made impotent. Those who challenged it was ignored, ridiculed, humiliated, and if necessary, destroyed. What made it worse was the fact that it has been going on for decades. So much so that the corruption has become institutionalized. 

The corruption was given veneer of civility and the weight of law. Wars and conflicts were fought for noble sounding goals just when in truth they were waged for profit. Treaties were nothing more than business contracts designed to benefit the few. Government no longer represented the people. It serves the interests of the controlling elite to the degree where they line separating them has blurred beyond recognition. 

Many consider Trump to be a ego-driven blowhard. Others consider him pompous and volatile, while some even believe him to be dangerous. There is no question that Trump has, at least, some of these qualities, and quiet likely much more than some would consider disagreeable. However, Trump is not part of the Status Quo which we've been made so comfortable with. We've been made afraid of freedom to the point where comfortable servitude is preferable to independence.  

In many ways Donald trump reminds be of Julius Caesar. Caesar was a successful general while Trump is a successful businessman. Both appeared at the end of their respective Republics. Like Caesar, Trump is a political outsider. Caesar sought to restore the Republic, which had become hopelessly corrupt and ineffectually. The Roman Senate promised much but delivered little except bread and distraction in order to buy off its citizens.  

Any real attempts at reform were brutally crushed such as with Tiberius Gracchus and his attempt at land reform around 133 BC as was his brother, Gaius's efforts at agarin reform in 123 BC., and, of course, the Three Servile Wars, made famous by Spartacus in the third war, to end servitude in its many forms. Like the U.S., Rome faced a massive influx of migrants which threatened the stability of the Republic. Efforts to curtail it were half hearted at best. But, as those with a basic knowledge of history should know, each of these individuals were killed in order to preserve the Status Quo. 

Caesar was awarded the title of "dictator" in the hopes that he could be appeased with the title and would leave the rotting Republic and its Senators alone. It failed. Caesar, it's claimed, said that in order to save the Republic, he would have to destroy the Republic, meaning that reversing the level of institutionalized corruption to restore the Republic would take a thorough and unpleasant bit of housecleaning. 

We generally choose to call it "draining the swamp", which is something Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to do. In just a few weeks, he will be sworn in and his second term will begin and then we shall see what his intentions truly are. One thing is for sure, the Status Quo will fight him every step of the way.

As we head into our 20th year, we here at Another Opinion would like to thank each of you, our dear readers, for all your support, encouragement, and comments over the past 12 months. We are deeply appreciative. The articles above are but a small glimpse onto the many exciting and tragic events of 2024 and whose ripples we will feel for weeks, months, and even years to come. No doubt this coming year will be no less eventful. We hope you all have a happy, healthy, and safe 2025.  

Thank you for reading "Another Opinion", the Op/Ed blog page for the "militant middle".  Here at "A/O" we truly value our readers. At A/O we seek the facts as they exist, not partisan talking points.  We hope you found our articles informative and engaging. Comments are welcome, provided they are not vulgar, insulting or demeaning.  Another Opinion is offered without charge and is directed toward all independent and free thinking individuals. We do ask, however, that you be sure to "like" us on whatever site you found us on in order to keep our articles available for others, and that you please pass our post along. Below you will find links to the sources we used in writing this article. Thank you. 

From Syrian jihadist leader to Syrian politician:  How Abu Mohmmad al-Jolani reinvented himself 

Who are the Syrian rebels that have toppled Assad and taken Damascus? 

US sends more troops to the Middle East as violence rises between Israel and Hezbollah

Russia-Ukraine War

U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine

Technological singularity 

The new surveillance state

The Trump agenda: Here's what to expect from his second term

The reform movement of the Gracchi (133 - 122 BC)  

President Biden pardon son, Hunter, despite "No One is Above the Law" promises

Merry Christmas to Hunter Biden!  His dad, outgoing President Joe Biden, has reloaded Hunter's "Get out of Jail" card, thus ensuring junior will skirt around the U.S. legal system once more.  Hunter's pardon  proves again to the American People and the world what we've known all along, that the United States has a dual legal system, one for the wealthy elites and one for the rest of us.

The then candidate President Joe Biden promised the American People on several occasions that his son, Hunter, would not be receiving a pardon from him, citing his trust in the U.S. justice system and Hunter's innocence (apparently he's not feeling so confident any more). If convicted, Hunter would be the first child of a president to face a possible prison sentence for felony criminal charges.

Hunter has been in repeated trouble for years including charges of cocaine possession (some have speculated that he may been the one who brought a stash of  "coke" into the White House, bypassing security. Something a ordinary visitor wouldn't be able to do), tax evasion, illegal gun possession to name but a few. There's been allegation that Hunter spent time on Jeffrey Epstein's "Pedophile Island" (who was actually there is still a matter of some dispute).  

Some believe his businesses dealings with Ukrainian oligarchs and politicians was a factor behind the current war between Ukraine and Russia. The war has caused the loss of thousands of lives and billions of dollars in damage, threatened Europe with war, ruined U.S. and Russia's relationship, and all over a  deal with oligarchs in the Ukrainian government involving oil and gas rights in the Black Sea in exchange for NATO protection (and supposedly guaranteed by then Vice President Joe Biden).

Of course, Trump supporters are giddy about President Biden's Christmas gift to Hunter since this appears to be a gift which just keeps on giving.  Thanks to Hunter's pardon, conservatives now see an opportunity for President Trump at being able to pardon all those facing possible jail time and/or fines for their part in the so-called "January 6th Insurrection" using the same legal argument.

If, as it's argued, Hunter can skip away untouched for all his misdeeds, then the "J6 political prisoners" as they're called, should be able to walk away too. If you think about it, it's hard to believe how far America has slipped. After all, the legal system, of all our branches of government, was expected to be the one branch  least affected by partisan politics and corruption, but here we are!  What happened?

Born in 1970, Hunter's life has been rife with trouble. Although his father doesn't drink, Hunter has more than made up for it. He's also had a long history of cocaine abuse dating back to his time in college and has been in and out of rehab centers (he attended Georgetown College and Yale's law school).

Shortly after graduating, Hunter was hired as a consultant by MBNA America, a holding bank with close tie to his father, Joe Biden, and one of his top political contributors. As Hunter quickly rose through the ranks to executive vice president, Joe was busy supporting a bankruptcy reform through Congress, which, as an aside, would aid certain financial institutions. You know, like MBNA America (which was eventually acquired by Bank of America).

In 2013, Hunter decided he wanted to join the U.S. Navy Reserves. And so following a swearing in ceremony at the White House under the  beaming gaze of his then Vice President father, Hunter was ordered to report to his first duty station...and was promptly discharged shortly after arriving for testing positive for cocaine. I guess he forgot having  read (and signed) the Navy's zero tolerance policy statement about drug use.

The death of his older brother, Beau,  from a brain tumor in 2015, sent Hunter back down the bottle again. He reputedly would never leave his house for days at a time unless it was for a trip to the liquor store! According to Kathleen Buhle, his ex-wife, that when they were going through their divorce, Hunter was consuming "massive" amounts of drugs and alcohol while spending a great amount of time and money on hookers, at strip clubs and with other women to the point where the family had no money left to pay their bills. 

A 2019 DNA test confirmed he was the father of child with a woman who had been employed as "exotic dancer". In a 2021 memoir, Hunter admitted that it was the unbridled infidelity that drove his wife away. As an aside, while the divorce with Kathleen was still pending, Hunter hooked up with Hallie Biden, the wife of his deceased brother Beau. Given that Hunter and Beau was considered inseparable, doing nearly everything together, perhaps this isn't too surprising.   The affair lasted about two years.

Despite being an addict and alcoholic, Hunter purchased a pistol in 2018, following another stint (this time for 60 days) in rehab. Allegedly, Hunter lied on the gun purchase application by saying that he was not a addict at that time. Hallie said that she found the gun and ammo in Hunter's car while she was removing drug paraphernalia.

Hallie went on to say that she put the gun in a old grocery bag and pitched it into dumpster. Hunter and Hallie split in 2019 just as Joe Biden announced another bid for the White House, this time against sitting President, Donald Trump.

Hunter didn't morn the breakup for long. Just about a month later, he met and married Melissa Cohen, documentary producer and social activist from Johannesburg, South Africa  following a six day "romance" on May 19, 2019. Shortly afterwards she became a naturalized citizen U.S. She is 16 years his junior.

By this point, while still employed by MBNA Bank, Hunter started a lobbying firm (no potential conflicts there). Politico Magazine reported that many of his early clients were in industries overseen by Joe Biden's committees in the Senate. In 2008, Hunter, along with another family member, acquired a hedge fund group, Paradigm Global Advisors just as Senator Biden resumed his chairmanship of  the Foreign Relations Committee (both Joe and Hunter have denied any collusion or wrong doings).

The Foreign Relations Committee is the only Senate committee to oversee, debate, and report on treaties directly to the president as they pertain to national security issues, including war powers, foreign aid programs, treaties, military deployment, executive agreements with foreign powers or agencies,  arms control, sales, and training matters, global economic policies, holding confirmation hearings for high level positions within the State Department, oversight of the U.S. Agency for International Development, as well as monitoring all American embassies, diplomats, and international posts.

By 2013, Hunter finally made it into the majors. He took a founding board seat with the Chinese private equity firm, BHR. Originally, he was apparently there as a unpaid consultant. Later, however, apparently because of his vast knowledge of foreign affairs, he was given a 10% equity stake in the company.

Much has been made in the media of a official trip by Vice President Biden, accompanied by his son, Hunter, to China for a simple "meet and greet" with Chinese government officials and various business leaders, including BHR's chief executive. Hunter described the meeting as merely stopping by for a "cup of coffee".  Shortly afterwards, BHR was registered in Shanghai, often called China's  "economic and technological crown jewel".

According to the Internal Revenue Service and the Department of Justice, during this same time frame (between 2016 and 2020), Hunter knowingly and willingly set out to defraud the government. Officials  estimated that Biden filed to pay some $1.4 million dollars in taxes.  When he did finally file his tax returns, he included false business expenses in order to reduce his tax liability, misrepresented payroll and other deductions among other allegations.  

In 2017, Hunter joined with Chinese businessman, Ye Jianming, founder and former chairman of CEFC China Energy Company Limited, in a deal to acquire natural gas rights in Louisiana (Ye was also an economic advisor to Czech president, Milos Zeman). However, before the deal could take off, Ye was picked up by Chinese security on charges of bribery and other "economic crimes".  As of March 2018, Ye hasn't been seen.

In 2014, Hunter Biden joined the board of Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian energy holding company headquartered in Kyiv involved in exploration and production. The company was owned by Russian oligarch, businessman, and politician, Mykola Zlochevsky, through his private company, Brociti Investments Limited.  For his participation on the board, Hunter was paid $1.2 million dollars a year.

 Later, through investigation by Ukrainian authorities, it was determined that oligarch, Ihor Kolomoisky, was the real owner behind Burisma.  Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian born Israeli businessman and billionaire, was at one time considered to be Ukraine's most powerful oligarch.  It bears mentioning that  Hunter's presidential pardon by Biden extends back to the start of his dealings with Burisma Holdings in 2014.

At the same time, Vice President Biden promoted the investigation of the Ukraine's leading legal prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, who was being accused of corruption. By pure happenstance, Shokin, the Prosecutor General of the Ukraine (equivalent to our U.S. Attorney General), was investigating alleged corruption between government officials and Burisma Holdings and its board members.

Now, why should a U.S. Vice President concern himself with a clearly internal legal matter in the Ukraine? Claims of collusion was denied by the White House and Democratic members of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.  In 2016, the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Shokin from his office. Not surprisingly, Viktor Shokin maintains his removal was due to his investigation of Burisma.      

Nevertheless, an FBI informant claimed that Joe and Hunter Biden were paid $5 million dollars each by Burisma executives for helping stop the investigation. The claim proved later proved to be false  (apparently you just can't trust FBI informants despite what they say on those TV shows). Meanwhile, one of Hunter's reputed business partners said that Joe Biden was part of conference calls with Hunter and other contacts, implying that Hunter had the support of his father.

A laptop belonging to Hunter was left with a repair shop in Wilmington, Delaware eventually found its way into the hands of the FBI. An examination of its hard drive was said to hold evidence of Hunter's dealings in China and Ukraine as well as his extensive use of drugs and booze.

Just exactly what was on the hard drive remains unknown, although since the revelation of the hard drive's possession by the FBI, the media has repeatedly implied that it proved Hunter's shady dealings which may have affected our national security, proof of bribery and corruption, or Joe Biden's direct or indirect involvement.

Republican members of the House Judiciary Committee and its Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence release a report which proposes that 51 CIA subcontractors, including then CIA Director, Gina Haspel, aided the Biden presidential campaign in misleading the public about President Biden and the contents on the laptop's hard drive. If the report is accurate, it would further damn Biden's political legacy not to mention the already crumbing credibility of the U.S. government and the power of the Deep State.  

On September 5, 2024, Hunter Biden was found guilty of tax evasion pertaining to a nine count complaint. Biden was found guilty on three felonies and six tax related misdemeanors. The Justice Department said that there was no plea deal made with Hunter. On December 16th, Hunter is scheduled to appear for sentencing, which carries a maximum 17 year prison sentence. On the gun possession charges, Hunter could face up to 25 years of prison time.

Although whatever was on the hard drive was enough for federal prosecutors to bring a criminal investigation against Hunter. But with Hunter's blanket pardon, the issue is moot. Hunter gets to walk away virtually unscathed despite President Biden's statement that "no one is above the law", well, except apparently his son, Hunter.

The U.S. Constitution grants the president the authority to issue a pardon, amnesty, reprieve, or commutation. A commutation reduces a sentence without completely setting it aside. A reprieve is a temporary delay or suspension of a sentence. A pardon absolves the person of all criminal charges as well as restore all civil rights while an amnesty is the same as a pardon but applies to multiple individuals or groups.

It's doubtful the American public will ever know the full contents for sure.  Nevertheless, the whole nefarious episode demonstrates to all just how broken society has become and how just much value we place on money, power and prestige, even if it means destroying our own lives or the lives of others. It also shows that those with money or hold power don't face the same rules or outcomes as does the common citizen. This is truly a nation of two separate and unequal legal systems.

 

Thank you for reading Another Opinion! We hope you enjoyed this article and will pass it along. Please don't forget to subscribe. It's free! Lastly, please "like" us on whatever platform you use to read anotheropinionblog.com. It helps beat the algorithms and keeps our articles in circulation. Please find below the links we consulted in researching this article.

 

Biden, Inc.

The Bidens' Influence Peddling Timeline

From laptop to pardon: The Hunter Biden story explained

Joe Biden pardons son Hunter: What it means and why itmatters

Melissa Cohen Biden

Burisma

Mykola Zlochevsky

Ihor Kolomoyski

Committee on Oversight and Accountability (Democrats)

Hunter Biden laptop controversy

 

New Information Shows CIA Contractors Colluded with theBiden Campaign to Discredit Hunter Biden Laptop Story

Robert Hunter Biden Convicted on Three Felony Tax Offensesand Six Misdemeanor Tax Offenses

The Expanding War in Gaza: Prelude to Armageddon or An Opportunity?

There's something happening which doesn't bode well for NATO, Europe, the U.S. or the Middle East and that "something" is Turkey. Turkey, which has NATO's second largest army, may represent the chink in NATO's defensive shield. Not only is Turkey one of the strongest of the mutual defensive organization, it also happens to be the only one which has a majority Sunni Muslim population.

While there are other nations in Europe which have a Muslim history, such as the former Yugoslav countries of Kosovo, Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina, none can match the sheer size of Turkey . NATO depends on Turkey not just for its military, but also for its strategic importance at the eastern end of the Mediterranean and proximity to Russia's underbelly...and Ukraine.

It's location offers a perfect tactical point to monitor all Russian ship movement---military and civilian---in and out of the Black Sea through the Bosporus Strait.  It provides prime real estate for listening stations and an excellent staging point for missiles aimed at key Russian military sites such as the vital Sevastopol naval base, as well as the oil and gas fields in the Crimea.  Obviously, Moscow is easily within reach of land based missiles, not to mention "boomer" ICBM submarines lurking in the Black Sea and nearby Mediterranean.

As an aside, Turkey's strategic position was put to the test back in 1962 when the United States secretly placed not just listening stations in Turkey, but also nuclear "Jupiter" missiles batteries capable of hitting Moscow within minutes, not to mention sites within the Warsaw Pact, which included the countries of Ukraine, Hungary and Romania.

 The Soviet Union, led by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, responded in-kind by putting listening stations and their own "R-12" intermediate range thermonuclear missiles in Cuba, resulting in a standoff known as the "Cuban Missile Crisis", which brought the world as close to total nuclear annihilation as it has ever come (and hopefully ever will).  

President John Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev were able to work out a deal whereby Soviet missiles would be withdrawn from Cuba provided U.S. missiles were removed from Turkey (which the U.S. quietly did several weeks later so as not to alarm the America public or look as if we were backing down to our allies), which brings us back to Turkey again.

During the 1960's and since, Turkey has provided the manpower to fuel the burgeoning economic success of post-WWII Europe, especially Germany which had become Europe's economic engine. The result was a massive influx of mostly Muslim Turks into Germany and elsewhere in Europe (about three million ethnic Turks now live in Germany along with roughly 3 million throughout the rest of Europe).

However, all isn't well between Turkey and its European/NATO allies. The rise of a radicalized Islam in neighboring countries has resulted in pressure on the traditionally secular Turkish Government, currently led by President Recep Tayyap Erdogan and his conservative/right wing "Justice and Development Party" to become more assertively Islamic. It should be pointed out that Turkey's Constitution specifically prohibits political parties which promote Islam or Sharia law.

The party, which utilizes the initials "AK" or "AKP", considers itself to be pro-liberal economically and  conservative democrat domestically, following the ideals originally set forth of the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, in what's termed as "Kemalist Reforms".  However, others have described Turkey as being democratically Islamist, which has been strongly denied by President Erdogan. 

Some claim that Turkey is following a "neo-Ottomanist" foreign policy designed to make itself the dominant power in the Near East (which would obviously puts it at odds with Saudi Arabia and Iran).  Indeed, a growing number of groups within Turkey are wanting to see the country slide further to the right and become more openly Islamic, if not like theocratic Iran, than at least like a democratic version of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

This leaves Turkey's government essentially walking a tightrope, which occasionally has spilled over in Turkey's relationship with Europe and the U.S. led NATO's support of Israel versus Turkey's obligation to side with the Palestinians and Hamas, which Erdogan does not consider to be terrorists.  The last thing President Erdogan wants is to face a situation like that of President Assad and Syria.

Turkey has promoted the "open border" policy of Europe, which has become extremely unpopular among Europeans due to the rise in crime and attacks on non-Muslim women for not being "modestly dressed" and demands for more conformity with Sharia law. Some have even called for an end to Oktoberfest due to the Muslim prohibition on alcohol! The number of legal and illegal influx of so-called "migrants" has resulted in approximately 22.8 million migrants coming to Europe with more arriving almost daily.

Most of these arrivals are single young males of military age.  Entire areas of European communities are now defacto Muslim enclaves, operating under their own laws (mainly Sharia) with their own representatives, courts, taxes, and police despite national laws to the contrary. As many don't work, there's been a tremendous strain placed on the economic safety net on the host nations, resulting in higher taxes and lower living standards for the native populations. There's even been calls for the locals to leave since their country is no longer theirs. It now belongs to the migrants! 

This influx has also impacted national foreign policies too. Many of the European countries have supported Israel since its inception in 1948. However, the large Muslim populations now make that position difficult to maintain in the face of massive protests, threats of riots and boycotts to force a withdrawal of support for Israel and more aid for Hamas and the people of Gaza.

In recent years, President Erdogan has repeatedly "threatened" to flood Europe (his NATO allies) with "millions" of  refugees from Syria. Turkey had previously granted temporary asylum and medical aid  to the Syrian refugees to help slow down the influx into Europe via Greece contingent on the EU  creating  a "safe zone" in Syria for the refugees, which haven't happen. Cyprus has joined with Turkey in the call for "safe zones".  Meanwhile, Turkey has created relatively safe "buffer zones" in their own in Syria.

As an aside, Turkey had  been used as staging point for these massive columns of migrants moving into Europe. In addition, Erdogan has also threatened to order Turkish nationals home from Europe, which could have a critical impact of Europe's economy due to the shortage of workers and overall decline in population. Europe's population has declined due to fewer women having children, smaller families, and its aging population, not to mention the impact of COVID-19.

Meanwhile, Turkey has forced Kurds out of refugee settlements in its east border. The Kurds had been under threat of genocide from ISIS, with many of their men having been murdered (mostly beheaded, hanged, or simply shot) while women and children were sold into slavery (girls as young as 7 or 8 were sold as "sex slaves" along with young women and others). Turkey and the Kurds have had a long history of conflict, which has often included Syria, Iran and Iraq, over the issue of Kurdish homeland.  

Turkey has also reiterated its pro-Palestinian stance as well as Erdogan has repeatedly demanded that Israel stop its military operations in Gaza. Israel responded to the brutal surprise attack by Hamas which resulted in the initial murder of 1400 men, women, and children (with many of the children being beheaded) with equal ferocity.  

Hamas's attack came by land, air, and sea, and was supported by missile and drone attacks. The air support came by way of hang gliders. In addition, Hamas also attempted to torch residences and businesses. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu has sworn total destruction of the terrorist organization and a "substantial reduction of Gaza".  The U.S. has sent two aircraft carrier task groups into the region, along with extra missile batteries while the UK has provided an aircraft carrier strike group.

Meanwhile, pro-Palestinian Hezbollah, designated terrorist group located in Southern Lebanon, has launched limited missile attacks into Northern Israel along the Golan Heights and promised to invade if Israel didn't halt its military actions in Gaza immediately. Hezbollah is substantially larger than Hamas. Both are backed by Iran.

As if that weren't bad enough, ISIS and Al-Qaeda factions in Syria have fired missiles into Israel while former guerrilla fighters or "Jihadist" from Afghanistan and Iraq have begun to gather along Jordan's border with Israel. Jordan, meanwhile, has called up its military to prevent any attempts by Jihadists to cross its borders into Israel. 

President Erdogan, while accusing Israel of deliberate attacks against the people of Gaza, has spoken with other regional leaders to ask that they apply additional pressure on Israel to stop its military operations. Erdogan has called Israel's attacks "genocide", which is a slight exaggeration, was not unexpected, and yet Hamas did intentionally plan and attack Israeli civilians knowing full well Israel's response.

Hamas knowingly placed weapons, ammo, communications and observation sites, missile batteries, artillery and tunnels in or near homes, schools, and hospitals, hoping Israel would hit them so they could accuse the Israelis of inhumanity and war crimes. Sorry, but you don't use people as shields. That's cowardice and criminal. If anyone is guilty of  attempted genocide, it must also include Hamas.

In the interim, Turkey has spoken out against American and British support of Israel as large pro-Gaza  protests are happening not only in Turkey and Europe, but also in Asia, Canada and even the United States. It appears Israel no longer has the worldwide support it once did, despite murderous attacks by those who've sworn to wipeout Israel and every single Israeli (it's even in their constitution).

So what happens next? The U.S. has obligatory urged Israel not to invade Gaza, but knows it will happen regardless. Might Turkey feel obliged to intervene on behalf of Gaza? Would this affect the solidarity of Turkey and the other members of NATO, especially the U.S. and UK? If that were to happen, how would it affect NATO's presence in Turkey and what about the ongoing war in Ukraine? Turkey is a vital staging point for weapons and supplies.

Might NATO sacrifice Turkey for Ukraine?  If so, Turkey could open its borders to allow a defacto invasion of Europe by migrants, ironically following the same route of the invading Ottomans in 1683, or withdraw its nationals from Europe's factories. Such a move could prove to be an economic catastrophe. Would support of Gaza also imply support of a internationally recognized terrorist group?

Would Turkey attempt to convene a coalition against Israel? There's no question that Turkey would like to recreate the power and prestige of the Ottoman Empire at the expense of Iran's growing regional influence. As a "free agent" Turkey would look extremely appealing to a expanding China too. Also, an expanded war involving Turkey would put a strain on America's military presence which it may not be able to deal with.

A recent Pentagon study revealed that the U.S. military was not up to fighting on multiple fronts. In fact, of all the armed force branches, only the U.S. Marines were 100% combat ready (hooyah devil dogs!). Thus an expanded conflict in the Middle East could give China the opening it needs to invade Taiwan, especially if North Korea's Kim Jong Un could be persuaded to get frisky with the Seoul.

Meanwhile, Israel might just start feeling a cold wind coming its way as Europe finds itself unable to  provide previous levels of support thanks to the large Muslim influx which could cause possible political instability at home. That pretty much leaves the U.S. and Israel, and with the U.S. having its own increasingly serious internal problems, it's not a wholly reliable ally.

Perhaps the solution (if there is one) is to reject Ukraine's application to join NATO while strengthening economic ties. Israel and the Palestinians need to revisit the idea of a "two state" solution. After all, the land wasn't exactly vacant when Israel moved in---neither 3000 years ago or in 1948. People may have been able to get away with it back then but not nowadays.

Nevertheless, Israel is not going anywhere, even if it means turning all that sand into glass. Everyone needs to formally accept Israel's existence, put on their big boy "sirwal" and get over it (you may substitute for a "wizrah"). No one is forcing them to trade or anything else with Israel. They just have to want peace.  And while we're at it, isn't time the Kurds were finally given a homeland too?   

 

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Turkey's Erdogan calls on Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza 'amounting to genocide'

Turkey moves ahead with its threats to send refugees to EU

Turkish president threatens to send millions of Syrian refugees to EU

Changing continent: The EU's population is declining, new figures reveal

Depopulation trends in Europe: what do we know about it?

The Jupiter Missiles and the Endgame of the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Matter of "Great Secrecy"

Justice and Development Party (Turkey)

  

How the Biden Administration Affected the Implosion of Two Banks and Shook the Financial Industry

We've just seen two major banks fail within days of each other while some financial pundits are alleging that 200 other banks are "vulnerable". What happened? Silicon Valley Bank was the first of the 2023 bank failures it was also the second largest failure in banking history (the largest was Washington Mutual in 2008).

The reason for its failure was due to having a high percentage of its investments in uninsured deposits and risky fixed rate "hold to maturity" bonds or "HTM" bonds (meaning they aren't readily tradable for other higher yield securities).

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), based in Santa Clara California, represented 50% of the money available to venture capital firms, particularly those with interest in new and emerging technology as well as biogenetics. While it was one of the primary banks to venture capital firms, its total assets were relatively small compared to the major banks like JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, or Bank of America.

According to investigators, 93% of SVB's deposits were uninsured. This means that many of its customers had deposits in excess of $250,000, which exceeds the amount covered by the FDIC. This percentage second highest in the banking industry behind Mellon Bank of New York with 96% of its deposits uninsured. 94.4% of its investments were in long term HTM securities and loans, compared to Mellon's 31.2%, meaning Mellon had more available liquid assets on hand.

Back when technology industry was booming and stock prices were rising, SVB saw its deposits grow from $65 billion in 2019 to $189 billion three years later. ignoring all the warning signs, the inevitable bust came in November of 2021, resulting in many of its corporate investors (especially tech companies) to begin a drawdown of their money, especially in light of rising interest rates and a downturn in the stock market.

To cover all the hefty withdrawals, SVB first blew thru its cash reserves and their convertible short term liquates. They then had to turn to its hold-to-maturity (HTM) bonds, which they were forced to sell at a loss. As the big dollar investors withdrew their money, word eventually spread to the smaller depositors who joined in the feeding frenzy. It wasn't long before SVB was virtually bust.  

The second bank failure of 2023 was the better known Signature Bank. It's failure was primarily the result of a run on the bank by spooked depositors after learning of SVB's collapse (such is the power of mob mentality). However, the underlining reason for its failure was its highly speculative investment in cryptocurrency, resulting in the fourth largest bank failure in the industry's history.

Like SVB, Signature Bank had a similar percentage uninsured deposits at 89% along with 93% of its investments tied up in loans and HTM bonds. While SVB and Signature were the only two banks with investment ratios this high, their implosion sent shock waves through the financial industry. Banks and other financial institutions, both domestic and global, saw their stock prices take a hit amid fears of possible bank runs by depositors and the stability of the financial market in general.

While it's unlikely their will make any more bank runs, the collapse  of SVB and Signature Bank nevertheless reveals an underlining concern by the public and corporate investors alike about rising inflation rates along with rising interests rates amid a shaky U.S. economy and deep concerns about the prospects of a new world war which could quickly go nuclear.

The U.S. economy had been doing rather well, with inflation running from around 1.5% in 2015 to a low of .07% in 2017 under President Obama (the "ideal" rate of inflation is about 2%). When Donald Trump took office in 2017, inflation was still a respectable 2.1% before dropping to 1.4% in 2020. Under President Biden, inflation jumped to 7% in 2021 before dropping slightly to 6.5% in 2022.  It's now hovering at about 6%.

Under President Obama, the economy added 11.6 million new jobs (though the upward trend began under Clinton). Unemployment dropped to 4.7% with the poverty rate declining to .5%.  Median household incomes grew an average of 5.8% over his two terms (by comparison, median household incomes rose an average of 13.9% under President Clinton but dropped to 4.2% under George W Bush). Home prices rose by 20%. The number of uninsured Americans dropped by 15.2 million individuals.

It's worth noting that under Clinton, corporate profits rose 55.2% while under George W. Bush they skyrocketed 118.9% before falling back to 54.9% under Obama (during the Nixon-Ford years, corporate profits rose by a astonishing 125.4%).

During Trump's tenure as President, unemployment rose to 6.3% while 2,876,000 jobs were lost. Nevertheless, the number of job opening rose 25.7%. Poverty continued to decline by 1.3%. The median household income rate grew by 6%. and median home prices rose by 27.5%.

Although food stamp recipients dropped by 1.7%, the consumer price index (the change in consumer prices) rose 7.6%. The number of people without insurance increased to over 3 million individuals, affecting single parent households the most.  Wages for private sector workers, however, rose by 8.7% under President Trump.

Under President Biden, the numbers aren't so rosy. Speaking at the Conference of Mayors, Biden said that thus far under his administration, unemployment had dropped by 16 million. Impressive, but not true. Analysis shows that while unemployment has dropped, the numbers were a much less impressive 5 million.

Biden also claimed to increased the number of new jobs by a record 10 million. Again, not true. Biden's Administration has seen a net loss of 22 million jobs, and while a portion of those jobs have been recovered,  40% remaining unfilled or permanently lost. And, as an aside, President Jimmy Carter grew the largest number of new jobs at 8.4%, not Biden.

President Biden claimed in a Tweet on March 16th that food related prices have dropped. Again, not true.  Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that over the last year, food prices rose 11.8%. For cereals and bakery goods, overall prices rose 16.1% last year. Dairy and related products (like ice cream, cheese, cottage cheese, etc), prices went up 15.3%.

 Other grocery items such as eggs, fish, chicken and beef saw an increase in prices by 7.7%.  Fruits and veggies had a 8.4% jump in price. Thus far this year, prices are still rising but at a generally slower rate of roughly .03%. Another issue for customers has been the price of gas.

When Biden first took office, the average price of regular gas was $2.39 a gallon. Within a year of taking office, the national average was $5.00 per gallon for regular. Today the average price nationally is about $3.39. Biden falsely claimed in October 2022 that when he took office, the average price of gas was $5.00 and added that his policies were responsible for the decrease. Nevertheless, it our era of under regulated corporate industries, there's not much a president can do on his own about gas prices.

Another factor affecting the mood of the public and depositors alike is the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with Russia and China. The United States spends more on its military---$801 billion---than the next nine nations combined. Russia spends just $300 million on its military, which is less than the UK ($400 million) or India ($500 million), and yet we've allocated over $400 million to Ukraine (the same amount as the entire military budget for the UK!). NATO has contributed roughly $80 billion in military aid with much of that comes indirectly from the U.S..

The result has been a unnecessary prolonging of the war and thousands of needless dead and wounded individuals not to mention billions of dollars in destruction, and yet only China has proposed a peace plan. You would think that the European Union and/or the United States would want to see some sort of peaceful resolution, but nope.

 As a result of continued Western aid, Putin has deployed nuclear ICBM missiles along with threats of using them while various NATO nations (notably Poland) have indicated they might be "forced" to get more directly involved. If Poland does, it could enact Article 5 of the NATO agreement which calls for NATO to come to the aid of another NATO member if attacked. It was this kind of distorted mentality which lead to World War I and we all know how that worked out for Europe.

Beijing has at least put forward a peace proposal as it has strengthened its relationship with Russia, including the shipment of military aid. At the same time it has been aggressively beefing up its military. Having the world's second largest budget, China has already deployed two aircraft carriers and is beginning sea trials on a third. It has enlarged its fleet in everything from amphibious landing crafts and coastal ships to cruisers and destroyers. It has also added shipbuilding yards, bringing the total to six.

Beijing has upgraded its army in terms of training and armament as well as adding troop carriers, tanks, mobile missile launchers, and aircraft. Most notably, it has also enlarged its cyber-military capabilities which not only covers surveillance and communications eavesdropping, but cyber-hacking and electronic jamming capabilities.

To makes matters more intense, China has become much more aggressive in asserting its claim over Taiwan, its border with India, and has challenged the territorial water rights of Japan, South Korea, Philippines, India, Indonesia, and Australia while asserting its own rights over the South and East China Seas.

In terms of trade, China is a major player in the technology market (which directly affected key corporate clients of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank) dominates the field of electronics. In addition, China is believed to be heavily involved in bitcoin, Ethereum while holding as much as $6 billion in crypto currencies. All factors in the failure of both banks.

China is also a essential trading partner of the U.S.. It makes up 17.48% of our imports. Meanwhile, the United States accounts for just 6.59% of China's imports. Their top import partners are Japan and South Korea who making up  8.44% and 8.36% respectively of its total percentage of imports.

In the era of COVID, China is an essential importer of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. which covers the gambit from medical equipment, vaccines and commonly use drugs. For example, they account for 95% of our ibuprofen, 91% of our hydrocortisone, 70% of our acetaminophen, 45% of our penicillin, and 80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients used in other drug manufacturing (they even provide the majority of those medical masks we wore during the outbreak of COVID!).

Technology, as stated earlier, is also a major Chinese import, especially in terms of cell phones, electronic chips used in computers, vehicles, televisions, microwaves, military equipment, as well as telecommunication equipment, computers, semiconductors, and various automotive parts.

Lastly, the Chinese have been doing a lot of shopping globally, buying up mineral and water rights, oil and natural gas rights, mines, agricultural (seeds, fertilizer, etc) manufactures, food processing firms, pipelines, concrete manufacturing plants, farmland, forests, and securing exclusive agreements as they go. If they can't conquer the world outright, then they'll buy it bit by bit.  So long Pax Americana!  

These are obvious reasons why big dollar depositors made a run on these two banks. There's plenty for corporate investors and ordinary depositors, as well as the public in general to be scared of as outlined above.  However, that's no excuse. Other banks, financial institutions, and businesses face these same issues and remain solvent.

Management will likely claim they were trying to maximize gains for their shareholders, which may be true,  but it will be the taxpayers who'll end up paying for their mistakes. Ultimately, it comes down to bad judgment and a failure to maintain a proper fiduciary responsibility in an industry which is in need of tighter regulation.   

 

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