Friday, July 26, 2024

Age May be But A Number, But Can Youth and Enthusiasm Win Over Age and Experience?

"Count your age by friends, not years. Count  your life by smiles, not tears" ----John Lennon


So, Joe Biden has been forced to step aside allegedly "for the good of the country and for the good of the Party". Biden is one of the longest serving politicians in Washington, starting in 1970. Now, Biden is one its oldest. Certainly the oldest serving president, having been elected at age 78.

Had Biden remained in the race and won (which was doubtful) he would have been 82 years old when sworn in. But how much does that really matter? Ronald Reagan was just shy of 70 when first elected (and yes, age was an issue then too), making him oldest person ever elected to the presidency at that point, and he went on to serve two terms.

Former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Dwight D. Eisenhower, was just 70 when he left office in 1961 (succeed by one of our youngest elected presidents, John F. Kennedy, who was a mere pup at 43. The youngest when elected was Teddy "TR" Roosevelt at age 42). The average age of presidents is 55 at the time of their inauguration.

It's worth noting at this point that the topic of age was intensely discuss by the Founding Fathers when it came to serving in Congress or the Presidency. However, they weren't concerned with placing a age cap on elected officials. In actually, they were more concerned with establishing a minimum age!

During the 1781 Constitutional Convention, Virginia's George Mason lobbied hard for establishing a minimum age. Many of the Conventioneers, lead by James Wilson of New Hampshire,  felt the someone should be at least 25 before seeking high office (remember that the mortality for men back then was about 40), which kind of makes sense actually.

However, Mason was able to convince his fellow delegates that (supposedly) age brought with it a measure of wisdom and maturity thanks to life's experiences. So, after the usual give and take, a compromise age of 35 was finally settled on as the minimum age to be elected as president. To be elected to the House of Representatives, the minimum age would be 25 (apparently wisdom and maturity aren't required as much there). For Senator you had to be 30 years old.  

Speaking of age, do you know why the minimum age to collect Social Security was set at age 65? Because the average life expectancy for men (the main bread winner) in 1935 was 60 years old (65 for women). Men had to beat the average by five years before they could apply!

So, if an "age cap" wasn't of any real consequence for our Founding Fathers beyond setting age floor, what's all the hubbub about Biden's age? I think the answer is a simple as it is obvious. We've all known individuals in their 40's, 50's or 60's who act like their octogenarians. They're sluggish, always tired and don't want to do anything that involves expending much energy (operating the remote doesn't count as expending much energy). Even their memory isn't quite what it used to be mainly because they don't challenge themselves intellectually.  

Then there's those individuals who are in their 70's, 80's and older who are constantly on the go. There are few household projects they won't tackle. They keep their minds sharp, be it actively watching game shows like "Jeopardy" or "The Weakest Link" and "competing" with the contestants to taking academic courses, learning a new skill, staying engaged with others, are proactive with their healthcare ,or so forth. These people boldly defy the age stereotype.

Despite his age going into office, Ronald Reagan developed a reputation for being active (like  riding horses or working on his 688 acre ranch at Rancho del Cielo). How many of us haven't seen photos of Reagan splitting wood? Even though Eisenhower was 70 when he left office in 1961, he continued to golf ("Ike" maintained a 14 handicap) but even while President, he never failed to get in 36 rounds of golf a week. 

Nevertheless, age eventually catches up with all of us no matter how fast we run. For President Reagan the early signs of Alzheimer were already there as early as 1984 according to Reagan's son, Ron. By  the time Reagan was almost completed his second and final term, the symptoms were becoming harder and harder to overlook. However, his official diagnosis didn't come until October 1994, five years after leaving office. 

Well, that brings us to Donald Trump and Joe Biden. We'll start with "the Donald". At the time Trump was 70 years old when he was inaugurated in 2017. That made him the then oldest president ever elected. However, if age is just a number marking our trips around the sun, then what factor should we be most concerned with?  

Being President isn't for the faint of heart or the couch potato. The Presidency is a highly demanding around-the-clock job.  For the next four years you're never "off the clock". As proof, we've all seen the before and after pictures of presidents. Most look like they've aged decades instead of just 4 or 8 years no matter how young they looked going in.

So, perhaps the most critical factors are their overall health, physical stamina, and mental acuity.  There's no question that Trump is a physically fit individual. He does things that would exhaust someone half his age, and his physicals bear that out.  At 6'3" and roughly 244 pounds, Trump has been proclaimed by independent doctors to be healthy (though he could stand to lose a few pounds). His blood pressure runs around  121/79 with a heart rate of 63.

In addition, in preparation for this race, Trump clams to have completed five cognitive skills tests (as he mentioned in his debate with Biden) and successfully passed all of them. What's not disputed is that the former president aced the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, which is one of the most accurate cognitive tests available. When voters were polled  47% generally tended to agree that Trump was mentally pretty sharp (compared to only 28% for Biden), which brings us to Biden and his health.

Long before the June 27th debate between Trump and Biden there's been a lot of discussion about Biden's mental  and physical health. Countless videos showed him confused or forgetting words or names, a blank stare, getting angry over nothing, getting lost, or talking to empty space. Physically, he often walks stiff like he had trouble with his movement or balance, stumbling, or simply fumbling with stuff. This happens to all of us at some point, but it's become almost expected for the president, which is not normal.

Foreign leaders have said that Biden isn't the man they had known in the past. Many have commented that he seemed dazed, having difficulty concentrating, making decisions, getting lost, and so forth. Our enemies, and even some of our friends, have come to see Biden as feeble and weak. That  in turn makes America seem vulnerable. To our friends, it gives them pause as to whether we are still dependable. 

President Biden underwent his annual physical  in February 2024 and was pronounced as "fit to serve" and "no new concerns" by his doctors  According to a White House press release, Biden has never officially been diagnosed with Alzheimer, dementia, stroke, or Parkinson's Disease and that Biden had met with three neurologists on three separate occasions.

Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that Biden has repeatedly declined to take any cognitive tests, which understandably has failed to reassure party leadership or corporate donors, especially based on what they've been seeing and hearing.  If, in fact, Biden had taken some sort of acuity test, the White House isn't telling anyone, including Democratic leadership.

Perhaps too this is all a game of semantics. Biden hasn't been "diagnosed" with any neurological disorders, but he also hasn't taken any tests to confirm it, which appears to imply the "diagnosis" was based solely on observation and not on empirical evidence.   Therefore, the statement "fit to serve" was more likely intended to simply ease public and party concerns  and reinforce confidence in Biden's bid for reelection than an actual statement of fact.

But any speculation is now all moot. Biden succumbed to mounting pressure and withdrew from the race on July 21th. The last poll conducted 48 hours before his announcement showed that he was trailing in six key swing states and that support for his continued campaign had all but collapsed in Virginia and Minnesota.    

According to a Pew Report released just before Biden's announcement, almost 75% of the respondents felt that Biden wasn't mentally fit compared to Trump's positive 58%.  Only 24% said they would describe Biden as "energetic".  Just slightly under one third approved of his job performance (which has never been on the plus side),  This makes his job approval the lowest of any president seeking reelection.  

As a side note, on  issues such as honesty and compassion, Biden outperformed "the Donald". 48% of those polled said Biden was more honest than Trump who polled just 36%. When it came to compassion for the masses, Biden squeaked by with 49% compared to Trump's 44%.

However, the number which stands out the most was that 71% of Biden supporters no longer supported his reelection bid.  Only 23% wanted him to remain on the ballot. For a reelection campaign, that's catastrophic. On the other side of the aisle, an April poll showed that 35% of Republicans and conservatives wanted to see Trump replaced on the ballot. That number dropped to 26% as of July with 72% happy the way things are.

With Biden out, Trump will face off against the 59 year old Vice President Kamala Harris (the same age as Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance). Ms. Harris has the dubious designation of having the lowest consecutive approval rating of any Vice President of any party at any time in U.S. history. As of July 23rd, Harris has a 51.4% disapproval rate among Americans in general.

Key to her election bid is her approval rating among the nation's largest voting bloc---Independent voters--- and especially among Independent women where she is currently polling just 29% (and about the same among men).  Mainstream news outlets have been on full court press to try and make Harris more appealing to voters which, at this time, appears the equivalent of using a bucket to bail out the Titanic.

Age may very well be "just a number", but whether is bestows wisdom and maturity is entirely a different matter. However, with four months to go until the November election, it appears that experience along with some guile and cunning are beating out youth and lukewarm enthusiasm.


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Pew: Joe Biden,Public Opinion, and His Withdrawal From the 2024 Race


Gallup: Biden's Approval Hit New Low Before Exit From Race


Biden quitrace for reelection after agonizing over poll data, sources say


Fivethirtyeight:Do American approve or disapprove of Kamala Harris


What the White House and the president doctor's say about the president's health


Mental AcuityQuestions Catch Up With Trump


List ofpresidents of the United States by age


Most U.S.presidents have been in their 50s at inauguration


The 8 OldestU.S. Presidents in History


ElectoralHistory of Joe Biden