Friday, May 06, 2022

A Time for a (Voting) Change: Republicans, Latinos and Other Minorities

According a recent Marist poll, as posted on Yahoo! News, more Latinos are registering Republican than Democrat. The survey shows that Democrats have only a 39% support among Hispanics compared to Republican support is 52%.

The poll also indicates that few Hispanics support Joe Biden in 2020 than they did Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 8 percentage points (63% from 71%). Of course, Biden has done little to merit the support of Hispanics or anyone else for that matter. Biden's approval numbers has been among the worse of any U.S. President at this point in their presidency, and his Vice president, Kamala Harris, has polled the lowest of any VP.

So, what's going on? Why are Hispanics turning away from Democrats? Historically, Cubans have been predominately Republican (or more accurately, conservatives) in part, thanks to Republican support of Cuban immigrants fleeing Castro's Cuba. However, Hispanics from Latin America, have tended to lean Democrat because of their more lenient policy toward open borders and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Polling responses seem to indicate that the Democrat Party's continuing shift further and further to the Left is the primary cause. Overall, Hispanics tend to be fairly conservative, or to rephrase it, more traditional. They tend to be very family centered and religiously oriented with the majority being Catholic. Hispanics also tend to hold traditional values when it comes to work and home life.

These tend to be conservative values as well. With the Democrat Party moving ever further to the political left, they are isolating Hispanics. Ironically, even the Left's use of the term "Latinx" which is aimed at being less sexist then "Latino" which generally refers to males, is largely rejected by the Hispanic community. 32% if registered Hispanic voters identify as Independent.

As an aside, the Hispanic community in general is seen as being male oriented ("macho") and in its extreme, very sexist in its portrayal of women. Homosexuals and "metro-males"  are also frowned upon and often ridiculed or used as a comedic prop in Hispanic television and cinema.

When we look at overall turnout, Hispanic voters, which make up roughly 11% of voters, have increasingly turned out since 2014 when only 20% voted to 2020 when just over 50% showed up at the polls.  This matches black voters who are turning out at about 65% and white voters, who make up a increasingly diminishing majority with about 67% of all voter, had a high in 2020 of 72%.

It's worth noting that whites represented 85% of voters in 1986 now represent roughly 67% in2020. Hispanics in general comprise about 23% of the overall population, reaching just over 60 million in number.

When we look at voter turnout by age as of 2020, seniors (60+) still represent the largest voting bloc with nearly 80% showing up to vote. Late middle age voters (45 -59) ranked second with just over 70% turnout. Both of these groups include both cohorts of Boomers with the later age bracket including the leading portion of Gen Xers.

Middle age voters (30 - 44), had a turnout about 65%. This group includes the bulk of Millennials and trailing Gen Xers. The lowest numbers belonged to the 18 - 29 age group (historically trailing edge Millennials with the bulk comprising mainly Gen Z). Their turnout in 2020 was barely over 50%. 

It should be noted that Millennials tend to be divided ideologically between socialist democrats and libertarians while Gen Z tends to favor socialist democracy. The later is also the most diverse demographic in U.S. history.

When we look at voter registration in general, we find that currently 40% of all voters are Independent. 30% are Democrat and 28% are Republican (Independents were as highly as 46% in January 2022. I January 2021 it was 50%). In fact, Independents have held a consistent majority of all voters since about 2008, and yet it's a little amusing and at the same time frustrating to see pollsters attempt to link Independents to either of the two corporate parties.

11 states now have Independent majorities, including most of the Northeast, Oregon, Arizona, Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, and Arkansas, while in several others they're the second largest voting bloc and growing. In the next ten years, an estimated half of all states will have an Independent majority.

They like to use leading questions like "do you lean Democrat or lean Republican" as if Independents are secret or closet partisan voters (I usually respond, "so you mean which of your two parties actually leans closer to the majority of Americans?"). Independents are just that...independent.

Most are ideological exiles (some willingly and some unwillingly) from both corporate parties. They hate dogma. I suspect most were the ones who, in school or church, would always raise their hand with a question to the consternation of their teacher or pastor!

Independents are natural moderates or centrists. They are conservative on some issues and more progressive or liberal on others. The one thing they aren't is predictable, which is what frustrates pollsters who like to put everyone in a box (hence the "lean towards" questions).

The only reason that even more voters aren't Independent is thanks to the partisan primary. Most elections are decided in the primary. That's where the party eliminates everyone but the one they want to represent them. Most primaries are financed by you---the taxpayer---where you either know it or not or want it or not.

However, Independents and third party members are prohibited from voting in most partisan primaries (what's known as "closed primaries").  That means they are forced to pay for a primary they aren't allowed to vote in. Talk about taxation without representation! That's why many Independents and third party members will temporarily switch to one of the corporate parties and then switch back; they want a say in the choice of candidates. 

Pollsters try to make a big deal of this (and often use the "lean toward" lie). One of the great frustrations (and fallacies) of our "winner-take-all" system is that it excludes everyone but the winner. If your choice loses, you're not going to be represented  for the next two, four, or six years. Consider that for a moment.

As an aside, when I say "you" here, I don't actually mean "you" the voter personally. The parties represent corporate cliques. They serve specific special interests groups which literally write the legislation which they then help turn into laws. You merely get to decide which of the two your interests most closely aligns. It's not like they care what you want or think. Wolves don't care about the opinions of sheep. 

The reason I mention this is that interestingly, Hispanics are increasingly showing up as Independents. Perhaps this just follows the trend of voters in general who are abandoning the inept and corrupt duopoly.  Independent and third party voters understand the political system is broken beyond repair and simply aren't willing to play along with the charade any longer.

Many of the recent immigrants coming to America are leaving behind broken political systems as well. They've not just "played the game", they've lived the game. 1/3 were born outside the U.S.. They know how rigged it can be. That's why they left in the first place! 

You can imagine their disappointment when arriving in America to find that they traded one corrupt system for another, except this one only gives you two choices. Maybe that's the reason growing numbers have opted to register Independent wherever its allowed.

When it comes to black voters, the nation's second largest racial voting bloc (Hispanics are the largest non-white voting bloc), they have a strong preference for the Democrats (when it comes to partisan registration, Democrats still hold a slight edge of the two corporate parties).

83% of black voters are registered as Democrats compared to 10% Republican, but again, the continual shift further Left, like with Hispanics, is starting to affect attitudes among black voters. As a population, many older black families tend to be socially conservative; holding similar "traditional family values" as Hispanics, Asians, and whites.

Two key issues affecting black voters are jobs and healthcare. Income levels had historically been much lower than whites, and more recently, even compared to Hispanics and Asians. This is often blamed on the high number of single adult households (mainly absentee fathers), tendency to live in high crime areas, have stable housing, and lower academic performance, especially in junior and senior high school (gangs, drug and alcohol abuse are also cited as key underlining factor).  

Blacks have long lead the list of having the highest numbers living in poverty.  In 2020 is was 19.5% for blacks.  For Hispanics, it was 17%, while for Asians it was 8.1% and 8.2% for whites. The overall poverty rate was 11%.

This makes black families particularly vulnerable to social program funding cuts. Republican policy has typically focused on reducing or even eliminating many social programs such as Head Start and after school activities, as well as job training programs or low interest home and business loans, whereas Democrats have generally tried to maintain, if not increase funding in the past (although in recent years that hasn't always been the case). 

Prior to Covid's appearance in 2019, one Pew survey found that 43% of black families claimed to have trouble paying their bills either on time or being able to make minimum payments on a regular basis. The same survey indicated that 33% depended on a food bank in order to regularly put food on the table. This percentage was higher than any other racial group.

Despite the trend of the Democrat Party toward the extreme Left, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, remain generally loyal, despite growing numbers of Hispanics abandoning the Democrats for the GOP and Independents. But that isn't to say the Republicans aren't moving just as fast to the extreme Right. The result is a further widening of the gulf between Americans.

Meanwhile, the growing public anger toward the overtly corrupt corporate duopoly and a political system which has long ceased to represent the people will continue to grow until it reaches a boiling point. If the protest of January 6th is anything, it's that the boiling point is a lot closer than some realize, especially within the Washington Beltway.  Both parties will continue to hemorrhage numbers while Independents, already a majority, will continue to grow along with third parties.

Both parties, in their desperation, will do whatever they must to maintain power. They already use tactics commonly found in third world petty dictatorships such as keeping out opposition through restriction of election laws, restricting free speech and assembly, increased surveillance, manipulation of the economy, voter suppression, and propaganda.

As already pointed out, they manipulate primaries. They also require an inordinate amount of signatures for Independents and third parties to get on the ballot while outright barring them from national debates. In some states, they prohibit referendums and ballot initiatives.

The corporate owned media treats third party and Independent candidates as circus sideshows if they're acknowledge at all. And, of course, both parties have deals with big money donors to keep any funding away, which all but assures them of being unable to get their message out. The end result is that voters get two pre-selected choices, which is to say, they get no choice at all.

They even denied Independents and third parties the opportunity to be appointed to boards and commissions, as well as even having separate election officers (currently they lumped into the smaller of the two parties and totally ignored afterwards). 

Nevertheless, the prospects for both parties are pretty dim, especially as America becomes more diverse. They can't realistically be everything to everybody and still serve their corporate paymasters. If we follow our current course, America will become a cold and grim neo-fascist corporate state like something out of some dystopian Sci-fi movie like Blade Runner, 1984, or The Running Man.  Americans, whether generational or recent, are independent oriented, innovative, and entrepreneurial. All they ask for is a fair shake; a equal opportunity. 

Power is never surrendered willingly. It will be up to the American People to take back their government and their country. It won't be through the system. It's hopelessly and intentionally broken. It won't come celebrity billionaires and global corporations. They are the holders of power. It won't come from so-called "political leaders". They serve and benefit from the broken system. The same goes for their political parties.  If it comes at all, it will be from those independent thinkers and doers.   


 If you want to know more, please take a look at the links below. If you enjoyed the article, please consider passing it along to others and don't forget to subscribe. It's free! Lastly please be sure to ""like" us on whatever platform you use to read A/O. It helps with the algorithms and keeps our articles in circulation. Thank you!  

 

Yahoo! News: Why the Latino vote is a growing problem forDemocrats


As Democrats go hard Left, Hispanics Head to the Center


United States Elections Project: Voter Turnout Demographics

 

Gallup: Party Affiliation


Gallup: U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021 

 

Ballotpedia: Partisan Affiliations of Registered Voters


Pew: Key Factors About Black Eligible Voters in 2020Battleground States


Income and Poverty in the United States 2020


 

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