Predicting the 2022 Election Results: Beating the Oddsmakers and Political Trends

The U.S. House of Representatives (more commonly referred to as "Congress", although that term actually relates to both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate) is comprised of 435 seats. This year's election is one of those rare ones where all 435 seats in the House are up for election. 

The Biden Administration is, naturally, boasting that House Democrat candidates are going to sweep the ballots across America on November 8th.  Of course, that's hogwash despite President Biden's unrealistic assessment of his popularity or that of his policies. Few political pundits agree with the president or those among the Left leaning media.

 In fact, Biden's disapproval rating is currently 55%, which is amusingly being heralded as a positive by Left leaning pundits! Democratic candidates are looking for presidential coattails, they might want to look elsewhere. With half of his term nearing completion, Biden has yet to sustain a majority approval rating.

As an aside, the Democratic controlled House has an approval rating of just 23% (it reached a high of 36% in March 2021). Broken down by party, the approval rating of House Democrats is roughly 39% while House Republicans only have a 6% approval rating.

However, there's a certain irony in these numbers. While the vast number of voters disapprove of Congress, Biden, the judicial system, and the overwhelming majority of U.S. institutions (the most notable exception being the armed forces), when asked if their representatives in Congress deserve to be reelected in November, 53% of those polled in June said yes!

So, I guess that means that while the majority of Americans disapprove of Congress's performance, they believe the problem is not their representatives but someone else's. A classic example of finger pointing and buck passing. I suppose this type of confusion goes to show that the mainstream media's propaganda apparatus is working as intended.

Until Americans realize that the corruption is systemic across the board, we will continue to see disapproval ratings in the mid 70% range (or higher) and incumbent reelection rates of 98%.  Of course, the mistake of Citizens United, partisan gerrymandering, and the absence of term limits has all but ensured that voters and potential challengers will have little say in either election outcomes or policy decisions.

 In fact, there's an actual term for it. It's called the "incumbent advantage" thanks to corporate financial backing, restricted debates, and media propaganda, not to mention use of taxpayer money to do defacto campaigning through manufactured public media events, mailers, "surveys", and self-promoting newsletters. The result being a near total stagnation of Congress. By the way, here's something to ponder as you go to the polls on Tuesday November 8th.

With all the historic demonization of the old Soviet Russian political system, did you know they had a higher rate of turnover in their Politburo (their "Congress") than we do? A 65% turnover rate wasn't uncommon. Even under Gorbachev, whose reforms essentially ended Communism in Russia, the turnover rate was still 31%. China's current rate of turnover in its Politburo is 54%! Within its controlling Central Committee, its turnover rate is 57%. Our average Congressional turnover rate is less than 2%. Makes you wonder who best represents its citizens doesn't it?

The election on November 8th marks one of the most important elections since Donald Trump's defeat in 2020. Both sides are vying for control of the House and Senate, not to mention that the outcome will set the stage for the 2024 Presidential race (which increasingly appears to be "Trump-less" thanks to bipartisan and media character assassination by innuendo). So, what's the most likely outcome?

Given that Wall Street is heavily invested in the control and outcome of elections (especially federal), what better place to look at the odds than Las Vegas?  According to "Sin City" oddsmakers, the Republicans will likely not just hold onto their seats, but will also pick up a few Democrat held seats.

In fact, the current betting odds appear to strongly favor Republicans. The site "FiveThirtyEight" is holding that 195 Republican seats are safe compared to 163 Democratic seats. The Republicans need 218 seats to have a majority, leaving 75 seats in contention.

According to "Gambling.com", the Democrats aren't fronting candidates in 23 districts, while the Republicans are giving up 14 seats. In looking at various gambling sites, "Gambling.com" states that Republican odds have gone from 2 to 5 to 2 to 7, and now have 1 to 8 chance of taking the House, which translates to a 89% likelihood. So, Republican control of the House isn't a sure thing, but it's damn close.

In the Senate, the Republican Party has a 60% chance of becoming the majority while the chances of the Democrats taking control of the Senate is just 47.6% according to bookmakers (the Senate is currently 50/50, with Democrat and Vice President Kamala Harris being the deciding vote). The odds also favor the GOP taking the Senate seats in Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Democrats are favored with taking Senate seats in New Hampshire and Arizona.

The non-bookmaking site Politico, in conjunction with Steve Shepard who does predict elections, is giving a strong nod to Republican House candidates and even money on the Senate races. As for gubernatorial races, Shepard thinks that Democrats will likely hold the majority of governorships.

While the number of safe seats and competitive races differ slightly from site to site, they mostly show a strong Republican outcome with the GOP likely taking control of the Senate. House seats will be a bit more competitive with Republicans gaining a slight margin. Democrats will have the majority of gubernatorial seats  Relatively few incumbents will have much to worry about and will likely retain their seats as typical.

This then will set the stage for the 2024 Presidential race. At this point it's assumed that Biden will run for reelection with Kamala Harris as his running mate again despite polling some of the lowest approval ratings for a VP ever (other possible contenders absent Biden include his Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Governor Gavin Newsom (CA), and Senators Elizabeth Warren (MA), and Bernie Sanders (NY)). 

At this juncture, it's unlikely "The Donald" will run again despite saber rattling to that effect. Instead, look for Florida's Ron DeSantis as the most likely future GOP nominee, but don't discount Tom Cotton (R- Ark) or former Secretary of State and CIA director Mike Pompeo.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is a possibility too.

 Former Trump VP Mike Pence (R-IN) has made some noise, as has Ted Cruz (R-GA), but both are seen as retreads. Nikki Haley, former Governor of North Carolina and UN ambassador doesn't seem to have the necessary savvy to be president, though she'd be good prospective running mate as VP.

Personally, my pick for a Vice President running mate would be Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii. The former Democrat is now a member of the nation's largest political bloc---the Independents. In addition she is conservative on the issues that count without being fanatical. She is the former Representative for Hawaii's 2nd District, retired military, well spoken, intelligent, and comes across well on television. She's also a pretty good debater.

In addition, she is a Pacific Islander. If she can remain an Independent, she'd be a boon on a Republican Presidential ticket by being a rallying point for the majority Independents and conservatives as well as conservative leaning moderates on both sides of the aisle.

So, there you have it. A little political history and a glimpse at the future, both near term and in two years (which in politics can be an eternity) based on current trends and polling results. Nevertheless, what ultimately matters is how you respond.

It's up to you---the voter---to direct the national discourse and determine the future of our country, not the professional political class, corporate money and power brokers which comprises the ruling Oligarchy.  Finally, please be sure to vote on Tuesday November 8th. We're depending on you.

 

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