Saturday, May 19, 2012

The Politics of Race

According to the Census Bureau, whites are now a minority, albeit the largest minorities, yet that is a little deceiving. Non-Hispanics whites are a numerical minority in 22 of the top 100 metropolitan areas including Washington DC, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Antonio. We can now add New York City, Las Vegas, and Memphis where black, Asian, and Hispanics outnumber whites. By or before 2020, whites will be a minority across the board nationally. Politically, communities which had small GOP majorities a few years ago, now have Democrat majorities. This is because non-white minorities tend to register Democrat; largely because the conservative Republican Party has failed in the past, and is failing in the present, to actively reach out to non-white minorities.

Non-white minorities now comprise 50.4 of the total new growth in population. The majority of this growth in among Hispanics, followed by Asians and whites. The lowest growth rates appears to be among blacks with around a 1% growth comprise just 12.3% of the population. One reason cited for the unexpected increase among Hispanics is that the average age of Hispanic women is 22 years; prime child rearing age., while average age among Hispanics in general is 27.6 years of age. Growth is approximately seven birth for every one death.

While all is not lost for conservatives, it appears to be for whites as a racial group. Minorities now make up 98% of the population growth as white births have fallen by 11.4%. As for the GOP and conservatives in general, the jury is still out. If the conservative gets serious...and can make inroads among conservative blacks, Asians, and Hispanics (what is often overlooked is that many black, Asian and Hispanic families are conservative on fiscal and foreign policy issues and moderate on social issues). Therefore, if the conservatives and GOP in particular, reign in their right wing religious zealot brethren, the drift to the Left back could be slowed or possibly reversed.

Gallup Politics published an interesting in 2009. While it's 3 years old, the results aren't likely to have significantly changed. According to Gallup, 11% of Hispanics and 19% of blacks are likely to be Democrat and either moderate or liberal while Asians are approximately 6% likely as well. Among whites, 63% are likely to be Republican and conservative. Only 12% of whites are Democrat and conservative.

With Hispanics currently making up just under 37% of the total population, 14% are moderate and Independent (5% are conservative and Republican). Blacks, who make up around 12% of the population, 6% are likely to be moderate and Independent (and only 2% likely to be conservative and Republican). Among Asians, 7% are moderate and Independent, with 6% being liberal Democrats and 4% conservative Republicans.

The survey went on to indicate that 89% of Republicans are non-Hispanic whites. Democrats, the most diverse of the two parties, is made up of 64% whites and 36% of Asian, blacks, or other race. 27% of Independent voters are Hispanic, black or other race. As an aside, 40% of Republicans consider themselves strongly religious (mostly fundamentalist or Evangelical Christian) with only 20% of Democrats regard themselves as actively religious.

So, what does this all mean in the final analysis? The Republican Party is in serious trouble if they do not aggressively reassert their more successful centrist roots. Nietzsche once said, "if you stare in the abyss long enough, it will stare back at you". The GOP is staring into its abyss. Its core group, whites, is rapidly shrinking while other racial groups, who are not as extreme conservative, are growing. To fail to adapt is to accept irreverence and finally oblivion.

For the Democrats, it will perhaps be tougher since blacks, once a key bulwark for the party, have been supplanted by Hispanics. How will they accept their new role, especially with Asians starting to breath over their shoulder? Public funds, once directed to black communities, are now being redirected to Hispanics ones along with key leadership positions, minority contracts, and public jobs. What's left may be fought over with an increasing and more vocal Asian population.

The best news all the way around is for moderates and Indies. Hispanics seem to prefer moderate politics and don't have a solid allegiance to either party. The same can be said of Asians. Meanwhile, the white base of the GOP and the black core of the Democrats are fading. The future seems to lay with the moderate and perhaps to the Independent movement. Ironically, that's something our Founding Fathers would have been proud of.

Whites become a minority in America

The Next America

Minorities now surpass Whites in US birth census

Republican base heavily White, Conservative, Religious

No comments: