As most people know I enjoy statistics and trends. There's something about using data to predict possible futures. Anyone who studies trends and statistics understands that nothing is an absolute. There are few guarantees in this life. Perhaps that's why I decided to major in economics when I was working on my undergraduate degree.
Following politics as I do is an excellent way to put my interest in trends, surveys, and opinion polls together into something approaching an informed and hopefully subjective expectation of a likely outcome. In other words, improving the odds that my guess will probably be right.
I've looked at just over a dozen polls (some well known and others not so much so). Out of all of them, Joe Biden winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Not by a huge margin, but one that's just enough to avoid any doubt.
According to the polls, Trump last held a one percent lead over Biden back during the week of September 16th, at least according to the Rasmussen while all the other polls shown a comfortable lead of around 5% for Biden. But just how accurate are the numbers?
In the 2016 Presidential Race between Hillary Clinton and "The Donald", all the polls showed Clinton with a 10% lead (Biden has a 11% according to some polls). In fact, throughout the campaign, practically everyone from pollsters to the media's talking heads had Hillary Clinton winning easily.
Of course, we all know what happened on election night. The corporate media and all the political hacks were stunned into absolute silence (and it was a beautiful thing for that fact alone). Ever since, the media has been hell bent on impeding, discrediting, distorting, and manipulating everything President Trump did or said.
The Democratic Party, along with support from the media, has done their utmost to destroy Trump's character. They've tried to link him to the Russians (turned out that was a Hillary sham). They tried to impeach him (notice how that's not being talked about). They tried to link him to the Ukraine scandal (that turned out to be Biden's son, Hunter).
They tried to link the COVID-19 virus to him (that goes back to Obama exporting the research to China). They tried to claim that minorities have suffered in Trump. Turns out that unemployment numbers are at their lowest in years. So, pretty much everything they've tried to stick on Trump has failed. But, as I've written for years, the Oligarchy will not allow Trump to remain. The Status Quo will continue unimpeded.
Meanwhile, we've seen the evolution of Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and other front groups dedicated to violence and blaming capitalism for all their ills. While many will blame the rioting, looting, and arson on the recent deaths of black individuals killed by the police, don't forget that it actually started the day Trump was sworn in as President. There were hundreds of individuals, upset that their candidate loss, throwing a giant temper tantrum by destroying property, committing vandalism, looting, and arson.
Now, we're being warned that if Biden doesn't win, they will do it again, but on a much larger scale, and with the possibility that people will be attacked, or worse. The police are already worn out by a summer of riots, protests, assaults, not to mentioned personal harassment including being spit on, having rocks, bottles, urine and feces being thrown at them. They are tired. They are frustrated. Many are quitting or going elsewhere.
In places like Louisville Kentucky, they've had to deal with inept leadership in-house and a absolutely useless mayor. Worse still is the internal "power politics" being played out behind the scenes involving the town's wealthy power brokers; all of which has left not just the police out to dry, but the residents and specifically black community as well.
In fact, if you look at all the cities and towns who've endured the worse civil strife this year, nearly everyone of them has a Democrat majority government. It's not that the Republicans are any better at governing. It's that they seem to be less willing to see their community destroyed. They are less tolerant of allowing random violence, looting, vandalism, and arson.
When those on the Right, be they Republicans or just conservatives, have shown up in support of the police or protect their property, the media typically refers to them "fascists", "neo-Nazis", "Alt-Right", or "white supremacists" while at the same time labeling the rioters and looters as "peaceful protestors"; some have even tried to justify the looting as "reparations".
Ironic that many of those doing the arson, vandalism, and so forth aren't protesting for social justice, but are paid agitators; individuals hired to create chaos and anarchy. Why isn't that being widely reported?
When the leaders of BLM openly admit to being Marxists intent on overthrowing the government, the media gives us crickets, and yet they immediately label conservative groups like the "Proud Boys" as white supremacists despite being lead by a black man. What gives America?
The media seems to be quite smug that their four years of attacking Trump and his Administration has done the job while suppressing or downplaying the corruption and incompetence of the Left and its leadership. Again, what gives? Where is their impartiality?
The biggest differences in this election are that this time we have a virus which has surely keep many from voting, especially seniors who are more apt to for Trump; a reliance on mail in ballots, boxes of which having been found in dumpsters and a postal union which has already endorsed Biden, not ot mentions ballots mysteriously appearing in close elections, all for Biden.
Lastly, there is the well funded and organized attack dogs, the likes of which we haven't seen since Hitler's Brownshirts, Mussolini's Blackshirts of the 1930's, or Mao's youth filled "Red Guard" in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Even the AFL-CIO has threatened to go strike if Trump wins.
That leaves America---you and me---sitting under a sword of Damocles of sorts. If Trump wins, we can expect the Democrats to reject the results regardless of the margin, throwing the nation into a Constitutional crisis coupled with widespread social upheaval.
If Biden wins, it's likely the Republicans will claim fraud and again throwing our nation into a Constitutional crisis. BLM, Antifa, and related groups will take to the streets demanding the GOP capitulate, destroying everything in their path.
Those on the Right, having exhausted their patience, will step forward to defend not just their family and property, but their communities. Either scenario could likely trigger martial law and the National Guard being called out to restore order. It won't be pretty. The only winner will be the ruling Oligarchy, who get to implement the kind of control they've been itching to do for years.
Historically, what has set America apart from most countries is the peaceful transition of power from one party to the other. The election in 2016 marked the end of that. While the Obama Administration was cordial (albeit stunned and barely holding back its contempt for the incoming administration), the protestors and rioters were unlike anything we've seen since 1860 and Lincoln's election.
This election portends to be much worse. Perhaps it's merely the implied threat of violence. I don't think so. I think the violence will occur either way the election goes, be it vengeance in case of a loss or revenge in case of a victory. The people will demand law and order, and the ruling Oligarchs will be more than happy to comply, just as they were in Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, China, Argentina, and everywhere else authoritarianism, be it Fascist or Communist, has been applied.
Sadly, this is what partisan politics has brought us to, especially when that partisanship has spread to the media which was supposed to be the arbiter of fair, honest, and unbiased reporting. This is what happens when we allow ourselves to be divided by the ruling elite.
They couldn't care less about racial or income equality any more than they care which of the two parties win since they literally own the White House, Congress, and judgeships. What they care about is a compliant population of worker bees. Individuals just smart enough to their jobs and passive enough not to ask to many questions.
As long as we are divided by the manufactured barriers they've created, we are powerless to do anything to stop them. Until we come realize this, we will continue to lose our freedoms bit by bit. We will continue to feel insecure. We will continue to live in fear. One thing is for sure. Regardless of who will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years, the only winners will the ruling Oligarchs and their Corporatocracy.