Can Israel Win The War of Public Opinion?

Israel was born in war. In 1947,  the United Nations tried to broker a deal under Resolution 181 (II) which would created two separate states, one Israeli and the other Palestinian in the area where no formal state previously existed. Up to that point the area was only a geographical region which, until then, had been a protectorate of the British Empire which it had rightfully stolen from the Ottoman Empire after WWI.

Under the terms of the plan Israel would have received 14,500 square kilometers  (which is about 10,000 square miles), the equivalent of about 52% of the land while the Palestinians would have 46% of the land amounting to 11,100 square kilometers which would be about 9890 square miles. The key cities of Jerusalem and Bethlehem would become international zones under the administration of the United Nations. The plan also stipulated that British Colonial Troops would undertake a gradual withdrawal to be completed no later than August 28, 1948.

The plan sought to mitigate two competing ideologies, that of Palestinian nationalism and that of Zionism, which had come to the forefront following the end of WWII and the Holocaust. It's noteworthy that while various Zionist organizations agreed to work with the United Nation's Special Committee on Palestine (UNSOP), no one from Palestine's leadership attended. This was essentially at the behest of the Arab League, which strongly opposed any large scale Jewish settlements in the region and wasn't too fond of Jews in general being there.

What was the Arab League? The Arab League was formed in the aftermath of WWII on March 22, 1945. It was to serve as the core structure to a Pan-Arab nationalist movement. It comprised the nations of Egypt, Transjordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and North Yemen, all of which had previously belonged to the Ottoman Empire until the end of WWI when they were dutifully "acquired" and divided up by France and Great Britain under the Sykes-Picot Plan without regard to religious sects, ethnic groups, or traditional borders. which was signed on May 16, 1916.   

It's worth noting that with the exception of Syria these nations had, until recently, been British colonial protectorates. Syria had fallen under French Administration. It also should be noted that many  supported Nazi Germany during the war. Thousands joined the SS to create eight predominately Muslim SS units, including the famous 13th and 22nd Waffen SS Mountain Divisions and also several high ranking former Nazis served as advisors or security consultants for many of these countries.

Fast forward to 1948, the Arab League rejected the plan for a two state solution nominally on behalf of the Palestinians. The result was an all out war just hours after Israel declared its nationhood. Since then Israel has been a state of almost continuous war and asymmetrical war by groups like the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), Black September, terrorist hijackings and bombings, and near constant missile attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah (both puppets of Iran).

Thus far, Israel has been successful in repelling these attacks, although it's come close to losing, and that would mean total and complete annihilation of Israel (the only democracy in the Middle East) and its people. The attack on October 7, 2023 was just another in a long line of unprovoked attacks, this time it was over 1400 men, women, and children enjoying a concert.

Whether Hamas, a international recognized terrorist organization, had the "right" to attack Israelis as part of their ongoing terrorist agenda to "liberate"  a mythical Palestinian homeland from Israel, it did not have the legal or moral right to murder, rape, burn alive, and kidnap innocent civilians.  If Hams considers itself "at war" as claimed, then it should conduct itself accordingly. However, it doesn't. it hides behind the innocent and vulnerable.

But nevertheless, it seems that Hamas and those behind it have learned a very valuable lesson which others have ignored---that of mixing social media and propaganda. They have launched one of the most successful "PR" campaigns in recent history. They have seriously threatened support for Israel which in the past was seen as unshakeable, especially here in the United States.  Support for Israel outside the U.S. is also drawing heavy fire from governments (many whom have been ardent supporters of Israel) and building pressure from their citizens.

We commonly see large groups of mostly college age individuals protesting on campus, in the streets and on highways, as well as massing anywhere people tend to gather. I guess is this their response to my generations anti-Vietnam war protests. The biggest difference is that these individuals don't seem to know much about the history of the region (especially recent) and they are extremely intolerant of opposing opinions to the point of harassment, shouting them down, destruction of property, and openly assaulting anyone who disagrees with them. Their solution appears to be "accept my opinion only".  

An amusing aside is that along with this, we find large numbers of gays, "trans" individuals and other members of the LGBQT community openly supporting Hamas. Apparently they don't realize that homosexuality in any form is a sin and violates the Koran. The punishment is death by stoning but just as often by being throw off of buildings followed by stoning. No reasoning. No exceptions. Just death.

Here in the U.S., despite or perhaps because of the protests, public opinion on our support for Israel seems to be shaky but intact. According to a recent poll by the Associated Press- NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, President Biden's handling of the situation over Gaza is  potentially in serious trouble.  

The poll indicates that about 50% of Democrats approve of Biden's handling of the situation thus far. However, a substantial 46% do not. 44% of Democrats polled said that Israel was getting too much support from the U.S while 45% thinks it's about right with just 9% wanting to see more from Biden.

The same poll also stated that current support for the Palestinians (which by extrapolation would include Hamas too) was too little by 44% compared to 37% saying it's just right and 15% saying it's already too much.

Of the 46% who disapprove of Biden's handing of the Gaza issue, a whopping 65% think that Israel is getting too much support. 58% also that the Palestinians aren't getting near enough support. Those Democrats who approve of Biden's actions thus far, 68% said that Israel was getting about the right amount of support while 51% say the same thing about the Palestinians.

Independents, the nation's largest voting bloc, overwhelming disapprove of Israel's ongoing war against Hamas by 60%. Only 29% approve and 11% had no opinion. The poll asked Democrats, the second largest voting bloc, the same question, whether they supported Israel's military actions in Gaza and found that 75% do not. Only 18% did with the balance having no comment.

While not surprising, the majority of Democrats under age 45 (65%)  and 58% of non-whites Democrats disapprove of Biden's handling of the war and his support for Israel. The same group blames Israel for the war by 56%.  Democrats over age 45% (65%) and white Democrats (62%) support Biden's efforts in the Middle East. This group thinks that Hamas is responsible for the situation by 76%.

According to a March 27, Gallup Poll, the majority of Americans--55%--disapprove of Israel's response to the Hamas attack. Only 36% approve. When looking at party, Republicans still support Israel's actions by 64% with 30% disapproving. It should be pointed out that while former President Donald Trump has been a keen supporter of Israel and a friend of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, that may be changing.

The former President stated in an interview with Hugh Hewett, a conservative talk radio host, that Netanyahu has made some serious mistakes in the handling of the war, including the unintentional bombing of a Palestinian refugee camp which was allegedly harboring members of Hamas. The bombing killed or wounded dozens of civilians.

It should be pointed out that since exact figures are unavailable or unreliable, it's currently estimated that over 10,000 Palestinian civilians have been killed thus far and thousands more maimed or injured. The food situation has reached  a humanitarian crisis point bordering on what many governments are calling a potential "genocide".

However, Hamas shares much of the blame due to their routine use of civilians as shields (they commonly use schools, hospitals, mosques, and private homes as staging positions for their missile attacks) and  block or hijack shipments of food, water, medical supplies and other forms of aid. Any Israeli response to these attacks is nearly always a automatic PR coup for Hamas. 

Trump also pointed out the obvious, namely that Israel is "losing the PR war.  They're losing it big". Perhaps this isn't such a big surprise since many of Trump's diehard supporters oppose Israel's ongoing response to the war and in a not too surprising partisan response, have been chanting "Genocide Joe" at pro-Biden rallies.

It appears the one of the key issues which will likely affect the outcome of the November Presidential Election will come down to what Biden does next regarding Israel. A large minority of his party oppose his current level of support for the Israelis as does the largest voting bloc, the Independents.  While a majority of Republicans continue their backing of Israel, it appears that many "MAGA" Republicans don't.

The best outcome for both presidential candidates is for Prime Minister Netanyahu bringing this war to quick end before November, even if that means not" wiping out Hamas" as he promised the Israeli people. At the same time, Netanyahu needs to seriously step up his PR game before not just Americans turn against Israel, but so does the rest of the world.

 

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2.2 Million Starving Gazans: What Price Victory Israel?

According to a recent United Nations report, 2.2 million people are facing starvation conditions in Northern Gaza along with a lack of drinking water. Approximately half or 1.1 million are facing "catastrophic" famine sometime between mid-March and May of this year.  

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (ICP), a multi-partner initiative involving governments, NGOs, the United Nations, and others, stated that "acute hunger and malnutrition has far exceed  the threshold for famine". In addition, the ICP said this represents the "highest number of people facing catastrophic hunger ever recorded". 

The ICP goes on to warn that people have already resorted to eating grass, animal feed, and drinking dirty water to survive. Pregnant women (or "birthing people" as they are known in "woken parts of the " United States), unable to produce enough milk, are begging government officials for baby formula and any other assistance.

Nevertheless, there are hundreds of tons of food, water, medicine, and other aid lined up on the Israeli-Gaza border waiting to cross over. Ships and cargo planes arriving almost daily bringing relief but little to none are reaching those who need it the most---the people of Gaza.

Some UN officials are blaming the Israeli Government of deliberately holding back the aid in an attempting to starve out the Gazans, and that opinion is spreading among other relief agencies such as the World Relief Programme's Executive Director, Cindy McCain, who said "the people of Gaza are starving to death right now. The speed at which this man-made hunger and malnutrition crisis has ripped through Gaza is terrifying".   

The European Union's top diplomat, Josef Borrell of Spain, has accused Israel of using starvation as a "weapon of war" by preventing humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, which Israeli officials have strongly denied.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that Israel does not intend to promote an artificial famine,  but to allow as much humanitarian aid into Gaza "as necessary". He added that it was Israel's intentions to be the sole entry point of all aide going into Gaza. Israel, according to Netanyahu, would see to it that Gaza got a much aide as it required.

Netanyahu's statements have been vigorously disputed by aide workers from various global agencies and even some government officials from neighboring countries. They report that Israel's "Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories" (COGAT) has been the principal barrier preventing humanitarian aid from reaching the starving 2.2 million people in Gaza. The role of COGAT is monitor access to Gaza .

COGAT has been accused of issuing confusing and contradictory  instructions in which to intentionally delay or prevent food, medicine, fresh water, and other essentials from crossing into Gaza.  So, with an apparent standstill, where does that leave the people of Gaza?

Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to annihilate the leadership of Hamas following its attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. 1139 mostly civilians were raped, beaten, tortured, and  finally murdered, including small children. Another 240 were taken prisoner.  

The early morning attack, which caught the vaulted Israeli intelligence forces and military totally off guard reminiscent of the 1973 Yom Kipper War. Hamas, along with soldiers from 9 other Palestinian paramilitary groups, the coordinated use of paragliders, scuba divers, small attack boats, and a mechanized unit comprised of several white Toyota pickups full of troops or mounted machine guns, a few dozen Honda motorcycles seating two fighters, and most impressive of all, surveillance/attack drones.

The highly coordinated training for the attacked largely took place just barely a mile from the border and watchful eyes of Israel. The training, which in some instances took over year to complete (such as for the paragliders and drones) took place in 14 training centers scattered throughout Gaza. Some of the training included the most efficient way to seize a house, destroy an Israeli tank, breach Israeli border walls to how to move Israeli hostages quickly while getting the maximum propaganda coverage.

Andreas King, a Senior Lecturer of Security Studies at Kings College in London  gave one of the best descriptions of how Israeli intelligence monitoring was beaten.  According to King, "while there was centralized planning, execution was decentralized, with each squad operating as it saw fit". Secondly, there was no effort to hide anything. Everything was done out in the open to make it look as routine as possible.

Hamas is considered a terrorist organization backed, supplied, trained, and financed by the Iranian government. Iran and Israel have a long history of  mutual hatred. Iran has repeatedly promised to "wipe Israel off the map" including the use of nuclear weapons regardless of the consequences to the people of Iran or the region. Iran also backs other terrorist groups regardless of whether they are Shia or Sunni such as Hezbollah, ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Boku Harem.  

Hamas was first "elected" to government to a series of political campaigns and  open warfare between Hamas and Fatah over the control of Gaza, the West Bank, and Palestinian refugee camps.  Fatah which was previously known as the Palestinian National Liberation Movement. Fatah is a nationalist social democrat political party originally founded by individuals like Yasser Arafat and Khalil al-Wazir.

Hamas was originally known as Islamic Resistance Movement, a group of radical Sunni Islamists who follow an extremist form of political religious of the Koran similar to Iran. Historically it has had a close relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, including the pro-Nazi Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Mohammed Amin al-Husseini.  It emphasizes their version of Sharia law everywhere, anti-Zionism, pan-Islamic unity, and full rejection of non-Muslim influences.

Hamas has managed to "win" and keep control of the Gaza pretty much since 2007. Their control has been a combination of intimidation and placation. However, their goal has always been on the removal of Israel and restoration of a united Palestine under their Sharia law.

In their attacks on Israel, Hamas has routinely used private homes to store munitions and military supplies. They typically operate rockets and missiles from mosques, minarets,hospitals, businesses and schools against Israel and also where they store their supplies.

It's commonplace that the homes of innocent civilians are used to fire on advancing Israelis while the residents are forced to remain in place. Hamas is well aware of the propaganda value of a retaliatory strike by Israel against a school full of students or a mosque full of worshipers, or hospital full of patients. But nothing is mentioned about the military use of these sites which prompted the Israel's retaliatory strikes. 

They've also developed an extensive and highly sophisticated network of tunnels extending well into Israel and Egypt which put the tunnels built by the Viet Cong or the Sinaloa drug cartel to shame. They use these tunnels to move terrorist cells, train, organize and plan. They even had munitions factories, repair shops, and well equipped Hamas only hospitals. Most importantly, smuggling of everything from advanced weapons to food, clothing, and medicine. Smuggling?  

Yes. The majority of what they smuggle is used for Hamas purposes. Most is sold or traded on the black market, while hospitals and the public receive whatever is parceled out to appease the populace. In addition, Hamas takes in millions of aid  which follows a similar path. The smuggling generates between $12 and $15 million a month.

As a result, while the people of Gaza starve, Hamas spends at least $100 million annually on its military infrastructure.  Meanwhile, Hamas receives as much as $360 million dollars from oil rich Qatar as well as  millions more from other Arab countries like NATO/EU member, Turkey, and wealthy Arab families.

As an aside, despite the abject poverty of Gaza, the senior most Hamas leadership are all billionaires thanks to grafted "donations". For instance, its top three leaders are worth a purportedly $11 billion dollars which goes to support their luxury lifestyles in Qatar and elsewhere. 

 The United Nations spends over $600 million to fund and run schools and operate hospitals (much of that money comes indirectly from U.S. taxpayers). This means all of the needs of Hamas are provided from outside, leaving it with millions on it military while its people starve.

Israeli intelligence, including the famous Mossad and Shin Bet failed magnificently on October 7th, and to an extent, so did the numerous U.S. intelligence agencies like the NSA, CIA, and DIA. They never saw what was coming, which is likely how future operations such as this will play out.

Netanyahu is furious, and rightly so. He knows all too well that lesser failures like this have brought down Israeli governments.  He knows too that these kind of failures expose weaknesses in Israel's defenses. Yes, the Israeli military---the IDF---performed with brilliance in its recovering and counterpunch.

There's little doubt that COGAT is intentionally delaying the release of humanitarian aid to Gaza at the direction of  Prime Minister Netanyahu.  He knows better than most, including  some bureaucrat in the United Nations or in some ivory tower NGO, that little of those supplies will actually reach the average citizen in Gaza. The majority of those supplies will be diverted (likely at gun point) to Hamas.

 Just a few weeks ago video footage was secretly shot of bread being selectively passed out to Gazans to keep them from rioting. At the same time, Hamas soldiers were firing their guns into the crowd to keep them back and in abeyance. Obviously, Hamas, which brought the war to Gaza, can't  now lose control over the people. The aid lined up on Israeli check points stand an excellent chance of being sold on the black market by Hamas, and you can be sure than none of Hamas' leadership have lost any weight.

Netanyahu has vowed to destroy  Hamas at any cost. In that, he has been largely successful. As many as 10,000 Hamas and associated fighters have been killed with over four thousands taken prisoner. Several of Hamas' top leaders have been killed, however, their senior most likely left the area before the October 7th attack for someplace safe and relaxing (applying a lesson from ISIS and Al Qaeda).

However, Netanyahu has to be very careful about winning the battle and losing the war. A large number of countries, financial institutions, and powerful NGOs have openly accused Israel of genocide (and withholding aid would seem to support that). Even in the United States and Germany, two of Israel's strongest allies, public opinion shows 65% blame Hamas while a large minority---35%---blame Israel.

 But let us remember that it was Hamas---not Israel---which started this war knowing full well the hellfire which would rain down on the people of Gaza, and chose to do it anyway.  Let us also not forget that Hamas regularly launches tens of thousands of rockets and missiles against Israel on a monthly basis, although that's of cold comfort to the starving 2.2 million men, women and children Hamas has bequeath to the world. 

Israel must reach as a realistic deal for a single Palestinian state. That's at the heart of Israel's national security and would deprive its enemies of their key weapon. Perhaps a good start would be for Israeli troops to accompany a relief convoy into Gaza and pass out the aid themselves, thus ensuring the food, water, and medical supplies  goes where need and denying Hamas both a propaganda and humanitarian victory. Nevertheless, Hamas has to go. It must be replaced by a government which sincerely cares for the wellbeing of Gaza and truly wants peace. Until then, this level of carnage will only continue. 

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