Friday, August 09, 2024

The State of Our Democracy Heading Into The November Elections

Political violence was always what some piss-ant third world nation faced during elections. It was typically some backwater place where the United Nations would send political observers who at least pretended to keep elections (mostly) above board.  In reality, they really couldn't do much against some drug kingpin, zealot mullah, or local war lord. But, that seems to have all changed in the one country which was suppose to be about all that. The United States.

Since the failed assassination attempt of Republican nominee Donald Trump,  threats of political violence has increased. Congress has experienced a ten-fold increase in threats of violence (including assassination) over the last decade. The New York Times published a survey where 10% of respondents said that use of force should be used to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the next president. Meanwhile, 7% said the force should be use to restore Trump to the White House. What's happening to America?

Political scientists and others who delve into this kind of data,  mostly agree that the U.S. is divided to its core. Many have said for decades that, as a nation, we are deeply divided along more areas than at any time since the American Civil War, which remains the bloodiest in our history and resulted in more American deaths than any war since---combined.

A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in May this year found that two-thirds of Americans across the political spectrum are seriously worried about this November's presidential election. 68%  acknowledged being concerned about possible acts of violence from either or both sides.

On Trump's inauguration day in 2014, the Radical Left, lead by Antifa and Black Lives Matter (BLM) launched a series of mass protests across the U.S. which typically devolved into looting, arson, destruction of property (even police cars overturned and set on fire). There was reports of assaults on innocent bystanders. Could something like that happen again? Many Americans seem to think so.

Among Republicans, 65% of respondents said they were fearful of possible violence should Kamala Harris lose. Among Democrats, 83% said they were worried about widespread violence in the event "The Donald" doesn't win similar to January 6, 2021 but only larger and more widespread. Meanwhile 89% of the nation's largest voting bloc--- Independents---were worried about violence regardless of who won!

A related poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult asked voters in seven swing states---Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania---if they were worried about possible violence pre or post election. Bloomberg reported that almost half---49%---of respondents across partisan lines admitted they were concerned about possible violence.

Voters in those states also said that the economy was "on the wrong track" by a margin of 68% to 32%. It should be noted as well that 52% had a "very unfavorable" to "somewhat unfavorable" opinion of Kamala Harris.  However, Republicans shouldn't gloat.  53% of respondents either "strongly" or "somewhat strongly" didn't care for Trump either. 40% didn't care for the Independent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 19% had no opinion and 5% never heard of him! 

Additionally, 49% of respondents had a negative opinion about Democrats in Congress while 53% felt the same way about Congressional Republicans. Overall, Congress has a negative approval rating of 65.5%. Just 19.3% of Americans think they are doing a good or adequate job. When applied globally, these are the kind of numbers that make revolutions possible, and yet Congress has a 98+% reelection rate. I know this isn't Denmark, but something is sure rotten!

One primary concern for Americans is the perceived failure of our democracy. According to a Gallup poll, less than 28% of Americans believed that our democracy was still working as it should. To rephrase it, some 72% of us believe we're living in a failed democracy.  Before the January 6th protest, that number stood at 35%, a drop of 7% in confidence.

The Economist Intelligent Unit, the polling arm of the magazine, "The Economist", has shown America as a "flawed democracy" for years.  We are teetering on becoming a "failed democracy" as the top two contenders for president head into the November election with approval ratings in the mid to low 40%. Another election outcome similar to 2014 would likely push us over the line.

As an aside, a February 28, 2024 Pew survey of 24 democratic countries revealed that while 77% said that democracy was a "good" system of government,  59% weren't happy with how democracy was currently functioning. The poll reinforces what Americans have said for decades---there's a serious disconnect between government and the people. 42% added that none of the political parties represented the voters and 72% said elected officials couldn't care less about what citizen's thought.

The Gallup poll also revealed that 67% said the November election was extremely important and may very well determine the future of democracy. The question, however, is which way? A Trump victory or a Harris victory? Which of the two is the correct way forward for our nation, or is it another choice like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?

Back to Morning Consult, this time teamed up with Bipartisan Policy Center, conducted another poll pertaining to the upcoming election. The result was that 85% of Americans were concerned about the state of our democracy. Half said they were more worried about having a "functional democracy" more than a strong economy! It's common knowledge that America is a defacto Oligarchy (rule by a small  elite group). In our case, that oligarchy is comprised of some very wealthy people and corporations.

Thanks to Citizens United, America has also transformed into a type of neo-fascist corporate state with government and Wall Street working in tandem for their mutual benefit. Congress, already known as the "Millionaire's Club", no longer represents ordinary Americans. They represent and serve the needs of Wall Street with outcomes spun to keep us pacified  while "bread and circuses do the rest.


The oligarchs underwrite their political campaigns, fund their so-called "Leadership Pacs", provides them with all sorts of perks like the use of private jets or staying at posh private beach homes, and so forth. They review legislation and make "recommendations" about which bill to support or oppose, what pork to add, and even help legislators write bills and then shepherd them through the maze of committees. Is it any wonder that 85% of our fellow citizens are worried about the state of our democracy? 91% believe it's the better financed candidate, not issue positions, who win most often.

Another telling survey about the November election, this time by Navigator, indicated that 87% of respondents believe something like January 6th could happen again. A majority of Democrats---94%---said they were worried that Republican members of Congress would aid the conservative protesters in some way, even by allowing "white supremacists" to take a leading role. 

Of course, there is some debate as to exactly what a "white supremacists" is these days. Some claim that if you lack "white guilt" you're a supremacist, or at least a "racist". Interestingly, 70% of Independents agreed that the Republican Party was more prone to allow or encourage violence from alleged white supremacists in the event they lose in November, although very little is being mentioned about the potential of violence by BLM and Antifa, who has already shown their readiness for violence.

This brings us to a good point to mention that roughly half of all Republicans and those who lean conservative believe Trump won the 2020 election, and not Biden despite what mainstream media has reported.  The extreme partisanship on both sides just may be the spark igniting the fuse to a civil war or even revolution, irrespective of who officially wins.

 Many pundits say that we're already experiencing a "cold civil war". 47% of voters believe that a "hot" civil war is all but inevitable according to a Marist National Poll taken on May 21st of this year. The poll indicated that 53% of Republicans believe a civil war is likely. 41% of our largest voting demographic, Independents, agree as does 40% of Democrats.

Going a step further, among Millennials and Gen Z, that number is 58%. 46% of Gen X also believe a civil war is on the horizon. Interestingly, just 34% of Babyboomers agree (must be all that "flower power" resurfacing again), but Boomers aren't alone. Only 19% of the Silent Generation expect a civil war.

When looking as race, 57% of Black Americans see the potential of an internal conflict. Of that, 22% are convinced that some form of domestic upheaval in the near future is likely. Half of all Latinos---50%---agree that civil war was likely to happen in their lifetimes as did 43% of whites (Asian, Native Americans, and Pacific Islanders weren't included in the poll). When females in general were asked, 57% thought a civil war was likely whereas 57% of men disagreed.  

So, where does that leave us? Is a civil war likely to happen in America? For most Americans, they hope not but many are holding their collective breath in the hopes that our "national storm" passes us by. Both of the two corporate owned parties have denounce violence, and yet lame duck president, Joe Biden, is publically saying that he doesn't expect a peaceful transition of power. It's worth reminding ourselves of the old adage that every revolution carries with it the seeds of its own destruction. 

If such a internal conflict does occur, martial law would be nearly instantaneous. Many freedoms will be suspended. or restricted.  America would almost immediately shift from a surveillance state to police state, perhaps aided by the guise of another virus as China did in Hong Kong, crushing all resistance. The ruling elite has long been planning for such an event from the shadowy corridors of power. All the mechanisms required are already in place.  The mask of civility will fall from the face of the ruling Oligarchy and we will see them for who they are.

However, increasing numbers of social scientists, especially historical and political, believe that we've already entered a "cold civil war" phase, which is largely being fought with words, images, and innuendoes. The media has already chosen a side as has much of the political and economic power structure along with the "nomenklatura" ( ie: managing government bureaucracy such as cabinet and department heads), the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the heads of the various intelligence agencies, better known collectively as the "shadow government".

The embers of division among Americans, which is mostly manufactured and exaggerated, will be fanned until they burst into flames. The border crisis will continue to worsen because Big Business wants it to. They need the cheap labor, which drives down wages as competition for jobs increase. Politicians will continue to offer us lip service. After all, if the fascist duo of Washington and Wall Street saw illegal immigration as a serious threat to them, the border would be locked down tighter than Ft. Knox!

Racial tensions will subtlety be fanned as old hatreds and suspicions are rekindled.  The "battle of the sexes" will intensify, but not necessarily between the biological sexes, but between the boundary of transgendered men and women versus society's norms until it reaches a boiling point. Religion too will become ever more vocal, especially among the Right where morality will be tied to one's political stance. Tolerance may become a rare commodity. History is littered with the charred relics of such wars.

The peaceful transition of power has been a hallmark of our Republic's stability, a rarity in the world. It has been both admired and despised around the globe. Our loss of trust in government, the media, the judicial system are not unfounded. There exists ample evidence of their corruptibility. However, it's the loss of tolerance and basic trust in each other which has caused the most harm. A democracy represents the  will of the collective. We demand equality for all.  When that's been lost, we revert to our tribal nature. A society cannot function or survive for long when it engages in the cult of the individual.

Americans (and indeed the world) have been convinced that up is down and black is green. We've been made to believe that our neighbors are inherently our enemies because they look, dress,  think, believe, or act differently from us when, in truth, it's their actions we must judge them by.

Today, our Republic stands as a shell of its former self much as Rome's did early on under the Caesars. We must, if we're to save ourselves and the country, once again abide by will of the majority and peacefully tolerate differences of opinion while remembering our collective nemesis, while faceless, exists in the halls of power and in corporate boardrooms which comprises the shadowy ruling oligarchy.


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Two-thirds in US fear violence could follow election,Reuter/Ipsos poll finds


Worried about violence as election nears? Just say no.


FiveThirtyEight: Do Americans approve or disapprove ofCongress?


Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Swing State Tracking Poll


Poll: 47% of Americans think a civil war is likely


Democracy's appeal is slipping as nations across much of the world hold elections, a poll finds


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