Saturday, January 23, 2021

Biden and Illegal Immigration: What's Next?

Donald Trump is gone. Joe Biden is now the President. Kamala Harris is the first female Vice President in U.S. history. The Status Quo is back in charge. It's business as usual again in Washington D.C.. So, why are we once more talking about illegal immigration?

That's because the new President has promised to make illegal immigration one of his chief priorities during his first 100 days. Biden plans to offer the estimated 11 million illegal residents amnesty almost immediately.  I guess that shows the thousands who've been waiting patiently to enter this country what chumps they were for obeying the law. When dealing with Washington, crime apparently does pay, at least to those who are patient enough.

In addition to giving a pass to the 11 million illegal immigrants currently in the U.S., Biden is planning on making it simpler for those wanting to enter the U.S. by reducing eligibility requirements. He's also intends to make it easier to obtain the coveted green card, which is needed to legally obtain work. 

That should be good news for the seven to eight thousand immigrants currently en route from Honduras (at last report they broke through the border checkpoints in Guatemala) and appear to be following the same path that the five thousand or so "Migrant Caravan" had taken a few years ago; they were stopped at the Mexican-American border.  

Some of you may recall former Mexican President, Vicente Fox, on Mexican TV at the time that the United States "had no right" to prevent immigrants from freely entering America (which was ironic given Mexico's draconian immigration laws).You may want to know that estimates indicate some 40,000 migrants are waiting on the Mexican border to enter the U.S.

Several studies have shown that the easier it is to enter a country legally, the less illegal immigration there is, which should be a no brainer. But it's worth noting that despite amnesty only about 41% actually decide to seek naturalization. With most Americans opposed to amnesty, why would Biden give amnesty to individuals who willingly violated immigration law? Why would he want to see a huge influx in immigration given all the problems currently facing America?

Well, the Democrats, like the Republicans, are beholden to Corporate America. Big Business and the federal government have effectively merged to form the current form of government, a Corporatocracy, which, as many know, is run by a handful of very wealthy individuals---Oligarchs. These elites are always looking to boost their bottom line. Perhaps the greatest liability they face are us---the workers.

Biden's move, if it's passed by the Democrat controlled Congress, will flood the job market. What happens when demand exceeds supply? Competition increases. In this case, it's competition for jobs. This usually drives down wages and reduces or eliminates benefits, improving profit margins. For those here pre-amnesty, it means that with amnesty they can also compete openly for jobs.

In fact, almost any new job they find will pay better than what they had. Those who criminally employed these individuals will have to improve not just the wages, but also the working conditions (which are typically horrible not to mention unsafe). Alternatively, they can seek out other immigrants who arrived after the amnesty period and continue with business as before. My money is on the latter.

However, the increased competition for jobs, will likely drive wages in the wrong direction. Furthermore, given the current pandemic situation in America, many small businesses (the backbone of the U.S. economy) have been severely hurt; many will never reopen or will have to cut back on hiring due to lost revenue. Some will be forced to hire only part time help.

This is especially true in the hospitality industry such as hotels, motels, and restaurants, farm labor, and construction, which just so happens to employ low or minimally skilled workers, many of whom are recent immigrants or those without a high school diploma at low wages.  Regardless, Biden and the Democrats will be perceived as the "good guys", especially within the Hispanic community.  Why is that important?

Although the percentage of immigrants coming to America seeking citizenship is relatively low, especially those from Latin America, the Democrats are hoping that their altruism will inspire some of these new citizens to register as Democrats, or at least vote for Democrat candidates. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bill passed allowing automatic voter registration with citizenship.

Democrats are the second largest voting bloc in the America. The largest is, of course, Independents. Republicans are the third largest. In fact, Independents have been the largest voting bloc since about 2008. Even at that, if the Democratic strategy works, the Republican Party could find itself all but locked out of federal politics or reduced to a regional party. As an aside, barring something drastic, I don't expect that we'll see another Republican President for many years to come.

As an aside, Independents are generally considered to be moderates or centrists who were booted from both corporate owned parties. They tend to be conservative on fiscal and foreign policy issues and somewhat liberal on social and domestic policies. They vote on issues rather than party line.

Of course, there's always a fly in the ointment. First off, voter registration has been on the decline. One study has shown a average 38% drop in voter registration in 17 of 21 states polled. Almost 50% of all registered voters typically fail to show up. One study showed 100 million regularly stay at home.

The reasons range from missing deadlines to simply being turned off by their choices. However, many feel that their vote no longer counts, especially given increasing issues of voter fraud and rigged elections in what was supposed to be one of the most secure electoral nations in the world.

Asians, Hispanics, and blacks typically register as Democrats (on the other hand, 57% of Cubans prefer the GOP). In fact, according a recent Pew study, minorities are 1/3 of the total new electoral registration since 2000, with Hispanics making up 39% of the growth or 13% of the total electorate.

It should be note too that Hispanics are the largest minority in America, surpassing blacks over a decade ago while Asians are rapidly growing and expected to exceed black populations in some areas within the next few decades. This will naturally affect the distribution of the limited federal dollars available for social services. Whites will be a minority by 2045, reaching parity with Hispanics.

Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that only about 13% of eligible Hispanics actually vote in national elections; the same percentage as blacks. Only 4% of Asians do so while 67% of whites turn out. But as the Hispanic population continues to grow and with the likely increase in Hispanic candidates, we can expect higher Hispanic turnouts which will certainly affect the balance of power between the two corporate owned parties.

Another issue to bear in mind regarding Biden's anticipated change in immigration policy concerns health and education. Few entering the U.S. speak English, especially the children. That means social programs and schools will have to further adapt. More bilingual first responders, hospital workers, social workers, teachers will be needed along with bilingual textbooks.

Literacy will remain a problem in general, as well as basic math skills not just for the kids, but for migrant adults as well, requiring specialized remedial education. For the children, they will likely need to include science and history. So, expect a few changes in school curriculums. As an aside, there may be changes in school sports programs too. Soccer is the national sport in most Hispanic countries along with boxing. That could mean some sports programs will be dropped or cut back due to limited funding by the evolving demographics.   

There will also be a cultural aspect in that we'll see stores change or expand their inventory to reflect the change in customers. So, don't be surprised to see more Hispanic products on your grocery shelf along with more Hispanic oriented media programming. Also, Hispanic culture is very male oriented.

Traditionally, most Hispanics are Roman Catholic. This could prove to be a boon for the cash strapped archdioceses across America who've had to pay out millions due to sex abuse lawsuits. But it should be pointed that over time, many Hispanics lapse and cease attending mass or other religious services. Others seek out different religions such as Baptist, Methodist, or Presbyterian.  

In terms of health, many, if not most have never been inoculated. Diseases all but eradicated like TB, polio, and smallpox, could make a new appearance until enough immigrants and their children are vaccinated to again erase these diseases. In addition, diseases not commonly found in the U.S. may show up, such as  Leprosy , Cholera, and Dengue. Of course, there is still COVID to consider.

So, what does this mean for America? Well, in many respects it's not as unnerving as it seems. We've experienced it many times throughout our brief history. It's included Germans, Irish, Welsh, Italians, Eastern Europeans, Chinese, Vietnamese Jews, Catholics, Buddhists, Hindus, Hispanics, and more recently, Muslims among countless others.  Most communities already reflect the change in the cultural makeup, so residents will notice little or no substantive changes. Another huge influx, however, will put an enormous strain on our social safety net and healthcare systems.

Historically, we've been successful thanks to the "melting pot" concept, where we mix and learn to adapt; taking the best from each.  Yes, distinct cultures have remained with whole neighborhoods of racial or ethnic groups in some cities. Their languages remain as does their cuisine and places of worship. But, they've adopted much of our collective traditions, values, but especially our language. In short, most have integrated.

Language, as I've often written, is the thread which binds the fabric of a nation together. When a people or group don't integrate or choose not to adopt the traditions, values, and language, they remain foreigners; outsiders. They develop no loyalty to the nation. In time, they will seek to carve out their own country within the host nation. It's happened time and time again throughout history.

The Democrats may attempt to become the dominate corporate party in America, although they will likely remain second to the Independents, by currying favor with the newest large minority. At the same time, they risk losing the trust of the black population, which has been a reliable ally since the 1930's. Asians have tended to support Democrats mainly out of habit since the states they primarily settled in were Democratic run. However, they have no particular loyalty to either party.

Thus, the Democrats run the risk, at least in the long run, of creating a new Yugoslavia with alienated and often hostile populations which never embraced national loyalty. The result, as many know, was wars, genocide, and eventually, a divided country. In the short term, they could further divide America. Meanwhile, the Republicans are a deeply fractured political party, and both are facing obsolescence thanks to the steadily growing Independents, localized third parties, and frustrated Americans. 


Voter registration has plummeted in 2020

Half of Americans Don't Vote. What Are They Thinking?

New Study Sheds Light On The 100 Million Who Don't Vote, Their Political Views And What They Think About 2020

Emerging Infectious Diseases

40,000 Migrants waiting at the U.S. border

Party Affiliation

1 comment:

South Ender said...

The current Republican Party, which can trace it origins as to what happened to the Whig Party, now looks as if it will suffer the same fate as the Whig Party.