Trump, the son of a real estate entrepreneur, learned as a
child that it’s not what you actually say or do, it’s all about the perception.
So, now, here we are with President Trump’s 870 page “One Big Beautiful Bill”
which (allegedly) contains the greatest sweeping changes in our country’s
history. The bill, we're told, will become legendary. Aren’t we blessed to be here and now
to witness its unveiling? But just what is in this bill and is it
as wonderful as it’s being portrayed by the Republicans? Is there anything in it we're not being told?
The bill was officially known as H.R. 1 “One Big Beautiful
Bill” (aka “OBBBA”) and was sponsored by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX) and
originated in the House Budget Committee May 20, 2025 (I’m sure he’ll find an
extra special “something” in his Christmas stocking).
The bill passed in the House with a 218 to 214 vote after
barely sliding by a vote in the Senate, 51 to 50, marking a significant victory
for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) despite three Republican senators
voting against the bill--- Rand Paul (R-KY), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Sen. Susan
Collins (R-ME).
The bill, which focused on tax cuts, was considered by many to be an extension of President Trump’s earlier bill, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (“TCJA”). The bill represents a saving of about $3.7 billion tax dollars to taxpayers (or if you look at it another way, $3.7 billion in taxes that the federal government won’t collect for various programs).
Funding for the increases came, in part, from reductions in
the budgets for programs like Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutritional Aid
Program, better known as “SNAP,” as well as other healthcare and nutritional
support programs. Some opponents claim that the reductions will potentially
leave some without healthcare and leave the underserved even worse off.
Congressional Republicans deny this will happen.
For some reason, I’m reminded of when President Ronald
Reagan made a similar cut in the National School Lunch Program. At one
point, after being criticized over the cuts in fresh fruits and vegetables
being available to school age children living poverty, he said the ketchup, which was
readily available in school lunchrooms, should be counted as vegetable (also
mentioned was pickle relish). It’s just not the same Gipper. The cut of 1.5 million dollars was intended to
give schools more “flexibility” to the lunch programs, however, it backfired.
As I’ve said on many occasions, perception in politics is everything.
With respect to Medicaid, which was created in 1965,
approximately 71.4 million people are currently using Medicaid which is
intended for low income individuals and families as well as those disabled and
unable to work. A further 7.3 million are enrolled in the Children’s health
Insurance Program (“CHIP”), which brings the total to 78.7 million people who
benefit from Medicaid, or roughly 24% of the U.S. population.
As an aside, both Medicaid and Medicare were expanded under
President Obama’s healthcare legislation, known as the “Affordable Care Act” in
an effort to provide coverage for those
without any healthcare and to provide a bridge for those who fell through the
cracks. So, I guess “Obamacare” has effectively been replaced by “OBBBAcare”!
Federal provider coverage will dropped from 6% to 3.5% over
the next seven years. That’s expected to
have an adverse effect on small community clinics and rural hospitals (especially
in low income areas like the Ozarks and Appalachia). The bill mandates that “able
bodied” adults to work or volunteer up to 15 hours per week. This also applies to those receiving
SNAP benefits to work or volunteer a minimum of 15
hours weekly.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, an estimated
12 million Medicaid recipients could lose coverage over the next decade. Proponents
claims that only those able to work and obtain coverage on the open market and
those who’ve obtained coverage fraudulently (such as illegal immigrants) will
be affected.
Social Security will also be affected. Once considered to be
“untouchable”, Congress regularly raids Social Security with the assurance that
these “loans” with be repaid but has resulted in concerns that the national retirement
safety net will go broke over the next
few decades.
A good piece of news is that individuals dependent on tips
or overtime to make ends meet with no longer be required to pay taxes on their
income up to $25,000. Many individuals, especially in the service industry,
aren’t paid a standard wage. Instead, they depend on tips while others, especially
in manufacturing, count on overtime to make ends meet.
Taxpayers will be able to write off a portion of their state
and local taxes (SALT) on their federal taxes up to $40,000 on incomes up to
$500,000 until 2029 when it will drop back to the current rate of $10,000. The
deduction benefits those who pay high property taxes, which tend to be the
wealthy. Private jets will now be tax deductible. In another prop for the well-to-do,
individuals can now pass up $15 million to their heirs tax free (if any of you
are rich, I’m available for adoption).
Private school vouchers were also added to the bill. Families
who earn less than three times the local income average may now receive up to
$5000 in tax credits to be used for homeschooling and private schools
(including religious based schools). Private colleges with a student population
of 3000 or more, will pay up to 8% in taxes on their endowments. Students will now be capped on the amount of federal loans they can borrow for college.
Car buyers will be able to write off up to $10,000 in
interest annually on car loans IF the car is assembled in the United States. A
boon for American auto workers. Additionally, those 65 and over will be able to
deduct up to $6000 in taxable income off the top through 2028.
According to a Penn Wharton Budget Model Forecast, the beneficiaries of this portion of the bill will be those in the upper income brackets, especially the top 1% (as if they need another tax break). Low income families currently receiving Medicaid and/or SNAP benefits could lose around $28,000 over a lifetime while those earning $58,000 or more could see savings as much as $65,000 over the same period.
It bears mentioning that the bill includes language encouraging continue and accelerate oil and gas leasing as well as permits oil and gas companies to us deductions built into the bill to avoid paying so-called "must pay" minimum corporate taxes of 15% imposed by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
The U.S. military is the largest in the world, exceeding the
next ten nations combined (including China, Russia, India,
France, and the UK), but under Trump’s bill, they’ll received an increase over
their current budget by $150 billion dollars, with an emphasis on rebuilding a
badly depleted military in addition to creating a missile defense “Golden Dome”
along the lines of Israel’s “Iron Dome” (look for China to build a “Jade Dome”)
next.
In 2024, the Heritage Foundation published a summary of U.S.
military readiness and key foreign threats. According to the report, the U.S. military
was not adequately prepared for a two front war or a prolonged war across a
broad single front. The U.S. Army’s capacity was listed as “weak” while its
capability was “marginal”. The Navy’s capacity was categorized as “very weak”
while its capability was “marginal” and its readiness was “weak”.
The Air Force was “very weak” when it came to readiness. Its
capability and capacity were both determined as being “weak”. The Marines, as
expected, were listed as “strong” when it came to readiness and capability, yet
“weak” in regard to capability. The Space Force was “marginal” across the board
(making us vulnerable to Martians I suppose). Overall, the report indicated
that the current state of our military was on the low side of “marginal”.
As an aside, in the
event the crisis is alleviated (such as capitulation or diplomacy), they can redirected into space and detonated. Critics
say the “Golden Dome” only heightens global tensions while proponents believed it
will serve to deescalated the threat of
a global war.
Trump has promised (and largely delivered) to enforce
existing immigration laws and improve border security. Accordingly, thousands
of migrants have been rounded up and deported. In an effort to continue and
step up efforts, the Office of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) was being given an additional $150 billion to
their budget, which had been reduced to just $8 billion dollars by previous
administrations. The increase now makes ICE the top funded federal law
enforcement agency in the country.
In summary, President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” will extend
tax cuts over the next decade, resulting a savings of approximately $4.5
trillion dollars to taxpayers and corporations. Border security and immigration
enforcement will see an increase in their Christmas stockings of $129 billion
dollars, and the military will get an increase over their current budget of $150
billion dollars. That should buy a lot of new toys for them to blow up.
On the down side, the Congressional Budget Office said that
Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” will likely add $3.4 billion to the federal
deficit over the next decade. The debt ceiling will be raised to $5 trillion
dollars, ostensively to help pay for current and future federal programs.
The bill also provides Big Pharma with a major break. It limits Medicare's ability to negotiate lower drug prices with pharmaceutical companies. Other public assistance programs, such as SNAP, will see a reduction of $287 billion over the next ten years (the same reason as above). Meanwhile, the so-called “green industry” will lose some $488 billion dollars in federal support.
In conclusion, President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is
largely positive overall for most Americans, and certainly for big business as
well as the very well-to-do. However, as usual, lower income brackets (and by extension,
minorities) and some seniors didn’t fare well with reductions in the social
safety net programs. However, many of the tax breaks and other cuts are
temporary which may be the best a deeply divided Congress can do.
The military, as is usually the case, made out like a pirate
(or should I say “privateer”?). For those who are curious, the budget for
intelligence agencies are separate and are generally kept secret from the public as well as the majority of Congress. Thus, their budgets are apparently none of our
business even though we fund them through our tax dollars. Tax breaks on income, especially tips and overtime, were long overdue, but come on, private jets? Really?
Crackdowns on illegal
immigration and dramatic improvements in border security are seen as a good
thing for national security, though it may be closer to the proverbial closing of
the chicken coop after the foxes are in. Educational funding had a number of
pros and cons but ultimately benefited the kids, which is what matters the most
(now they need to figure out how to improve the quality of their
education).
Finally, all things considered, after having spent a lot of time researching the
bill, I’m not sure I would have called it “One Big Beautiful Bill”, but I guess
“One Big Not Ugly Bill” doesn’t sound as marketable.
Thank you for reading
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article. Thank you.
H.R. 1 One Big Beautiful Bill text
Big Beautiful Bill 101: What you need to know about the newlaw
Senate passes Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” in 51 to 50 voteafter marathon session
Can Donald Trump build the ‘Golden Dome’ over the US?
What are the key items in Trump’s sprawling budget bill?
Is the Pentagon headed for a military readiness crisis?
Military Readiness: Implementing the GOA’s recommendations…
Executive Summary of the 2024 Index of U.S. Military Strength
7 Overlooked Provisions In Trump and The GOP’s Ugly Tax Bill
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